Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Direct effects of climate change on productivity of European aquaculture

  • Published:
Aquaculture International Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Aquaculture managers and industry must take into account the impact of climate change on production and environmental quality to ensure that sector growth is sustainable over the coming decades, a key requirement for food security. The potential effects of climate change on aquaculture range from changes to production capacity in existing cultivation areas to changes in the areas themselves, which may become unsuitable for particular species, but also suitable for new species. The prediction of where and how such changes may occur is challenging, not least because the cultivated species may themselves exhibit plasticity, which makes it difficult to forecast the degree to which different locations and culture types may be affected. This work presents a modelling approach used to predict the potential effects of climate change on aquaculture, considering six key finfish and shellfish species of economic importance in Europe: Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata), sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax), Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas), blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) and Mediterranean mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis). The focus is on effects on physiology, growth performance and environmental footprint, and the resultant economic impact at the farm scale. Climate projections for present-day conditions; mid-century (2040–2060) and end-of-century (2080–2100) were extracted from regionally downscaled global climate models and used to force bioenergetic models. For each of those time periods, two different carbon concentration scenarios were considered: a moderate situation (IPCC RCP 4.5) and an extreme situation (IPCC RCP 8.5). Projected temperature changes will have variable effects on growth depending on the species and geographic region. From the case studies analysed, gilthead bream farmed in sea cages in the western Mediterranean was the most vulnerable, whereas offshore-suspended mussel culture in SW Portugal was least affected. Most of the marine finfish simulated were projected to have decreased feeding efficiency in both mid-century and end-of-century climate scenarios. Bivalve shellfish showed a decreasing trend with respect to most productivity parameters as climate change progresses, under both emission scenarios. As a general trend across species and regions, economic uncertainty is expected to increase under all future projections.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

Data Availability

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

Notes

  1. Feeding efficiency is considered to be 1/FCR.

  2. COM/2011/0804

References

  • Barange M, Bahri T, Beveridge MCM, Cochrane KL, Funge-Smith S, Poulain F (2018) Impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture: synthesis of current knowledge, adaptation and mitigation options. In: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper No. 627. vol. 628 FAO, Rome.

  • Bayne B (2017) Biology of Oysters, vol 41, 1st edn. Press, Academy

    Google Scholar 

  • Beukema JJ, Dekker R, Jansen JM (2009) Some like it cold: populations of the tellinid bivalve macoma balthica (L.) suffer in various ways from a warming climate. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 384:135–145. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps07952

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bouwer LM (2019) “Observed and projected impacts from extreme weather events: implications for loss and damage,” in Loss and Damage from Climate Change: Concepts, Methods and Policy Options, eds R. Melcher, T. Schinko, S. Surminski, and J. Linnerooth-Bayer (Cham: Springer), 63–82. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72026-5_3

  • Brigolin D, Maschio GD, Rampazzo F, Giani M, Pastres R (2009) An individual-based population dynamic model for estimating biomass yield and nutrient fluxes through an off-shore mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis) farm. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 82:365–376. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2009.01.029

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Butenschön M, Clark J, Aldridge JN, Allen JI, Artioli Y, Blackford J, Bruggeman J, Cazenave P, Ciavatta S, Kay S, Lessin G, van Leeuwen S, van der Molen J, de Mora L, Polimene L, Sailley S, Stephens N, Torres R (2016) ERSEM 15.06: a generic model for marine biogeochemistry and the ecosystem dynamics of the lower trophic levels. Geosci Model Dev 9:1293–1339. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1293-2016

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Catalán IA, Auch D, Kamermans P, Morales-Nin B, Angelopoulos NV, Reglero P, Sandersfield T, Peck MA (2019) Critically examining the knowledge base required to mechanistically project climate impacts: a case study of Europe’s fish and shellfish. Fish and Fisheries 1-17 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12359

  • CERES (2020a) Climate Change and European Fisheries and Aquaculture: Project Storyline #5 - Mussels in the North Sea. [Brochure] Universität Hamburg (https://ceresproject.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/5-Mussels-in-the-North-Sea_revised.pdf). Accessed 15 July 2020

  • CERES (2020b) Climate Change and European Fisheries and Aquaculture: Project Storyline #6 - Oysters in the North Sea. [Brochure] Universität Hamburg (https://ceresproject.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/6-Oysters-in-the-North-Sea_revised.pdf). Accessed 15 July 2020

  • Cromey CJ, Nickel TD, Black KD (2002) DEPOMOD—modelling the deposition and biological effects of waste solids from marine cage farms. Aquaculture 214:211–239. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0044-8486(02)00368-X

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cubillo AM, Ferreira JG, Robinson SMC, Pearce CM, Corner RA, Johansen J (2016) Role of deposit feeders in integrated multi-trophic aquaculture - a model analysis. Aquaculture 453:54–66

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • D’Abramo L, Slater MJ (2019) Climate change: response and role of global aquaculture. J World Aquacult Soc 28(4):51. Available at: https://www.was.org/articles/Climate-change-Response-and-role-of-global-aquaculture.aspx#.XvC0yGj7SUk. Accessed Jan 2020

  • Dahlke FT, Wohlrab S, Butzin M, Pörtner H-O (2020) Thermal bottlenecks in the life cycle define climate vulnerability of fish. Science (80-) 369:65–70. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz3658

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Eide A, Heen K (2002) Economic impacts of global warming: A study of the fishing industry in North Norway. Fisheries Research 56(3):261–274

  • European Commission (2012) Blue Growth - opportunities for marine and maritime sustainable growth. - communication from the commission to the European parliament, the European council, the council, the European economic and social committee and the committee of the regions, Brussels.

  • European Commission (2018) Facts and Figures on the Common Fisheries Policy. European Commission, 52 pp.

  • Fabi G, Manoukian S, Spagnolo A (2009) Impact of an open-sea suspended mussel culture on macrobenthic community (Western Adriatic Sea). Aquaculture 289:54–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2008.12.026

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Falconer L, Hjøllo SS, Telfer TC, McAdam BJ, Hermansen Ø, Ytteborg E (2020) The importance of calibrating climate change projections to local conditions at aquaculture sites. Aquaculture 514:734487. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2019.734487

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • FAO (2017) Adaptation strategies of the aquaculture sector to the impacts of climate change. In: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Circular No. 1142, Rome, Italy. 41pp.

  • FAO (2018) The state of world fisheries and aquaculture (SOFIA). FAO, Rome, p 227

    Google Scholar 

  • Ferreira JG, Hawkins AJS, Bricker SB (2007a) Management of productivity, environmental effects and profitability of shellfish aquaculture — the Farm Aquaculture Resource Management (FARM) model. Aquaculture 264:160–174

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ferreira JG, Hawkins AJS, Monteiro P, Moore H, Service M, Edwards A, Gowen R, Lourenco P, Mellor A, Nunes JP, Pascoe PL, Ramos L, Sequira A, Simas T, Strong J (2007b) SMILE - Sustainable Mariculture in northern Irish Lough Ecosystems. Assessment of Carrying Capacity for Environmentally Sustainable Shellfish Culture in Carlingford Lough, Strangford Lough, Belfast Lough, Larne Lough and Lough Foyle. Ed. IMAR - Institute of Marine Research. 100 pp.

  • Ferreira JG, Hawkins AJS, Monteiro P, Moore H, Service M, Pascoe PL, Ramos L, Sequeira A (2008) Integrated assessment of ecosystem-scale carrying capacity in shellfish growing areas. Aquaculture 275:138–151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2007.12.018

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ferreira JG, Sequeira A, Hawkins AJS, Newton A, others (2009) Analysis of coastal and offshore aquaculture: application of the FARM model to multiple systems and shellfish species. Aquaculture 289:32–41

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ferreira JG, Aguilar-Manjarrez J, Bacher C, Black K, Dong SL, Grant J, Hofmann E, Kapetsky J, Leung PS, Pastres R, Strand Ø, Zhu CB (2010) Expert panel presentation V.3. Progressing aquaculture through virtual technology and decision-making tools for novel management. In: Book of Abstracts, Global Conference on Aquaculture 2010, 22–25 September 2010. FAO/NACA/Thailand Department of Fisheries, Bangkok, Thailand, pp 91–93

    Google Scholar 

  • Ferreira JG, Saurel C, Ferreira JM (2012) Cultivation of gilthead bream in monoculture and integrated multitrophic aquaculture. Analysis of production and environmental effects by means of the FARM model. Aquaculture 358–359:23–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2012.06.015

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ferreira JG, Corner RA, Johansen J, Cubillo AM (2014) Environmental effects of Atlantic salmon cage culture—a simulation based on bioenergetics modelling of growth and analysis of mitigation in IMTA. 15th Conference of the European Aquaculture Society, San Sebastián, Spain.

  • Ferreira JG, Lencart e Silva J, Cubillo AM, Lopes AS, Bergh Ø, Całka B, Doyle T, Fragoso B, Hofsoe-Oppermann P, Guilder J, Icely J, Johanssen J, Kamermans P, Kennerley A, Keszka S, Martín V, Panicz R, Rad F, Sadowski J, Saurel C, Taylor N (2019) Improved and validated modelling tools for analysis of climate change to aquaculture productivity at local and ecosystem scale with data from review and new experiments. Deliverable Report 3.2 CERES. Available at: https://ceresproject.eu/ceres-results-and-solutions/. Accessed Jan 2020

  • Ferreira R, Ferreira JG, Boogert FJ, Corner RA, Nunes JP, Grant J, Johansen J, Dewey WF (2020) A multimetric investor index for aquaculture: application to the European Union and Norway. Aquaculture 516:734600. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2019.734600

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ferreira JG, Taylor N, Cubillo AM, Lencart-Silva J, Bergh Ø, Roberto Pastres R (2021) An integrated model for aquaculture production, pathogen interaction, and environmental effects. Aquaculture 536:736438

  • Føre M, Alver M, Alfredsen JA, Marafioti G, Senneset G, Birkevold J, Willumsen FV, Lange G, Espmark Å, Terjesene BF (2016) Modelling growth performance and feeding behaviour of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in commercial size aquaculture net pens: model details and validation through full-scale experiments. Aquaculture 464:268–278

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fragoso B, Icely JD (2009) Upwelling events and recruitment patterns of the major fouling species on coastal aquaculture (Sagres, Portugal). J Coast Res:419–423

  • Froese R, Winker H, Corod G, Demirele N, Tsikliras AC, Dimarchopoulou D, Scarcella G, Quaash M, Matz-Lücki N (2018) Status and rebuilding of European fisheries. Mar Policy 93:159–170

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frost M, Baxter JM, Buckley PJ, Cox M, Cye SR, Harvey NW (2012) Impacts of climate change on fish, fisheries and aquaculture. Aquat Conserv Mar Freshwat Ecosyst 22:331–336. https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.2230

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fuentes-Santos I, Labarta U, Álvarez-Salgado XA (2019) Modelling mussel shell and flesh growth using a dynamic net production approach. Aquaculture 506:84–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2019.03.030

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gangnery A, Bacher C, Buestel D (2004) Application of a population dynamics model to the Mediterranean mussel, Mytilus galloprovincialis, reared in Thau Lagoon (France). Aquaculture 229:289–313. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0044-8486(03)00360-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Helmuth B (1998) Intertidal mussel microclimates: predicting the body temperature of a sessile invertebrate. Ecol Monogr 68:51–74

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Helmuth B, Mieszkowska N, Moore P, Hawkins SJ (2006) Living on the edge of two changing worlds: forecasting the responses of rocky intertidal ecosystems to climate change. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 37:373–404

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holt JT, James ID, Jones JE (2001) An s coordinate density evolving model of the northwest European continental shelf 1, Model description and density structure. J Geophys Res 106:14015–14034. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JC000304

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holt J, Butenschön M, Wakelin SL, Artioli Y, Allen JI (2012) Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario. Biogeosciences 9:97–117. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-97-2012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2014) In: Pachauri, K., Meyer, L.A. (Eds.), Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Core Writing Team, R. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland

  • Jennings S, Stentiford GD, Leocadio AM, Jeffery KR, Metcalfe JD, Katsiadaki I, Auchterlonie NA, Mangi SC, Pinnegar JK, Ellis T, Peeler EJ, Luisetti T, Baker-Austin C, Brown M, Catchpole TL, Clyne FJ, Dye SR, Edmonds NJ, Hyder K, Lee J, Lees DN, Morgan OC, O'Brien CM, Oidtmann B, Posen PE, Santos AR, Taylor NGH, Turner AD, Townhill BL, Verner-Jeffreys DW (2016) Aquatic food security: insights into challenges and solutions from an analysis of interactions between fisheries, aquaculture, food safety, human health, fish and human welfare, economy and environment. Fish Fish 17:893–938. https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kay S, Butenschön M (2016) Projections of change in key ecosystem indicators for planning and management of marine protected areas: an example study for European seas. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 201:172–184. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.03.003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kay S, Andersson H, Catalán IA, Drinkwater KF, Eilola K, Jordà G, Ramirez-Romero E (2018) Projections of physical and biogeochemical parameters and habitat indicators for European seas, including synthesis of Sea Level Rise and storminess. Deliverable Report 1.3 CERES. Available at https://ceresproject.eu/ceres-results-and-solutions/. Accessed Jan 2020

  • Klinger DH, Levin SA, Watson JR (2017) The growth of finfish in global open-ocean aquaculture under climate change. Proc R Soc B 284:20170834. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2017.0834

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Kooijman SALM (2010) Dynamic energy budget theory for metabolic organization, 3rd edn. Cambridge University Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Kreiss CM, Papathanasopoulou E, Hamon KG, Pinnegar JK, Rybicki S, Micallef G, Tabeau A, Cubillo AM, Peck MA (2020) Future socio-political scenarios for aquatic resources in Europe: an operationalized framework for aquaculture projections. Front Mar Sci 7:568159. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.568159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Larsen PS, Filgueira R, Riisgård HU (2014) Somatic growth of mussels Mytilus edulis in field studies compared to predictions using BEG, DEB, and SFG models. J. Sea Res 88:100–108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lasner T, Brinker A, Nielsen R, Rad F (2016) Establishing a benchmarking for fish farming -profitability, productivity and energy efficiency of German, Danish and Turkish rainbow trout grow-out systems. Aquac Res 1−15:3134–3148. https://doi.org/10.1111/are.13144

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li S, Yang Z, Nadolnyak D, Zhang Y (2016) Economic impacts of climate change: profitability of freshwater aquaculture in China. Aquac Res 47:1537–1548. https://doi.org/10.1111/are.12614

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lopes AS, Ferreira JG, Vale C, Johansen J (2017) The mass balance of production and consumption: supporting policy-makers for aquatic food security. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 188:212–223

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Margaritelli G, Cacho I, Català A, Barra M, Bellucci LG, Lubritto C, Rettori R, Lirer F (2020) Persistent warm Mediterranean surface waters during the Roman period. Sci Rep 10:10431. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67281-2

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Merino G, Barange M, Blanchard JL, Harle J, Holmes R, Allen I, Allison EH, Badjek MC, Dulvy NK, Holt J, Jennings S, Mullon C, Rodwell LD (2012) Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand form a growing human population in a changing climate? Glob Environ Chang 22(4):795–806

  • META—Maritime and Environmental Thresholds for Aquaculture (2020) Processed Eurostat data on European aquaculture obtained from http://longline.co.uk/meta. Accessed Jan 2020

  • Montalto V, Helmuth B, Ruti PM, Dell’Aquila A, Rinaldi A, Sarà G (2016) A mechanistic approach reveals non linear effects of climate warming on mussels throughout the Mediterranean Sea. Clim Chang 139:293–306. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1780-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mørkøre T, Rørvik KA (2001) Seasonal variations in growth, feed utilisation and product quality of farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) transferred to seawater as 0+ or 1+ smolts. Aquaculture 199(1–2):145–157. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0044-8486(01)00524-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Neubauer P, Andersen KH (2019) Thermal performance of fish is explained by an interplay between physiology, behaviour and ecology. Conserv Physiol 7:coz025. https://doi.org/10.1093/conphys/coz025

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Peck MA, Catalán IA, Damalas D, Elliott M, Ferreira JG, Hamon KG, Kamermans P, Kay S, Kreiß CM, Pinnegar JK, Sailley SF, Taylor NGH (2020) Climate Change and European Fisheries and Aquaculture: ‘CERES’ Project Synthesis Report. Hamburg. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25592/uhhfdm.804

  • Petes LE, Menge BA, Murphy GD (2007) Environmental stress decreases survival, growth, and reproduction in New Zealand mussels. J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 351:83–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jembe.2007.06.025

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pörtner HO, Peck MA (2010) Climate change effects on fishes and fisheries: towards a cause-and-effect understanding. J Fish Biol 77:1745–1779. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1095-8649.2010.02783.x

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Potts WM, Götz A, James N (2015) Review of the projected impacts of climate change on coastal fishes in southern Africa. Rev Fish Biol Fish 25(4):603–630. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11160-015-9399-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • R Core Team (2020) R: A language and environment for statistical computing. In: R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna. http://www.R-project.org/. Accessed Jan 2020

  • Reid GK, Gurney-Smith HJ, Flaherty M, Garber AF, Forster I, Brewer-Dalton K, Knowler D, Marcogliese DJ, Chopin T, Moccia RD, Smith CT (2019) Climate change and aquaculture: considering adaptation potential. Aquac Environ Interact 11:603–624

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sarà G, Kearney M, Helmuth B (2011) Combining heat-transfer and energy budget models to predict thermal stress in Mediterranean intertidal mussels. Chem Ecol 27:135–145. https://doi.org/10.1080/02757540.2011.552227

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sarà G, Palmeri V, Rinaldi A, Montalto V, Helmuth B (2013) Predicting biological invasions in marine habitats through eco-physiological mechanistic models: a case study with the bivalve Brachidontes pharaonis. Divers Distrib 19:1235–1247. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12074

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scholten H, Smaal AC (1998) Responses of Mytilus edulis L. to varying food concentrations: testing EMMY, an ecophysiological model. J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 219:217–239

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scholten H, Smaal AC (1999) The ecophysiological response of mussels (Mytilus edulis) in mesocosms to a range of inorganic nutrient loads: simulations with the model EMMY. Aquat Ecol 33:83–100

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seneviratne SI, Nicholls N, Easterling D, Goodess CM, Kanae S, Kossin J et al (2012) Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL et al (eds) In Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 109–230

    Google Scholar 

  • Shchepetkin AF, McWilliams JC (2005) The regional oceanic modeling system (ROMS): a split-explicit, free-surface, topography-following-coordinate oceanic model. Ocean Model 9:347–404. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2004.08.002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Skogen MD, Olsen A, Børsheim KY, Sandø AB, Skjelvan I (2014) Modelling ocean acidification in the Nordic and Barents Seas in present and future climate. J Mar Syst 131:10–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2013.10.005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Steeves LE, Filgueira R, Guyondet T, Chassé J, Comeau L (2018) Past, present, and future: performance of two bivalve species under changing environmental conditions. Front Mar Sci 5:184. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2018.00184

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sunday JM, Bates AE, Dulvy NK (2012) Thermal tolerance and the global redistribution of animals. Nat Clim Chang 2:686–690. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1539

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2011) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomas Y, Pouvreau S, Alunno-Bruscia M, Barillé L, Gohin F, Bryère P, Gernez P (2016) Global change and climate-driven invasion of the Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) along European coasts: a bioenergetics modelling approach. J Biogeogr 43:568–579. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12665

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Erkom SC, Griffiths CL (1992) Physiological energetics of four South African mussel species in relation to body size, ration, and temperature. Comp Biochem Physiol 101A(4):779–189

    Google Scholar 

  • van Erkom SC, Griffiths CL (1993) Factors affecting relative rates of growth in four South African mussel species. Aquaculture 109:257–273

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, others (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Chang 109:5–31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vasilakopoulos P, Maravelias CD, Tserpes G (2014) The alarming decline of Mediterranean fish stocks. Curr Biol 24:1643–1648

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • von Schuckmann K, Le Traon P-Y, Smith N, Pascual A, Djavidnia S, Gattuso et al (2020) Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Issue 4. J Oper Oceanogr 13:S1–S172. https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2020.1785097

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weatherdon LV, Magnan AK, Rogers AD, Sumaila UR, Cheung WWL (2016) Observed and projected impacts of climate change on marine fisheries, aquaculture, coastal tourism, and human health: an update. Front Mar Sci 3:48. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2016.00048

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank the researchers that contributed to this work by providing culture practice data and feedback throughout the model validation procedure. These are Johan Johanssen (GIFAS), John Icely and Bruno Fragoso (Sagremarisco), Cornelia Kreiss (Thuenen Institute), Ferit Rad (MEU), Virginia Martín (IEO), Remigiusz Panicz (ZUT), Camille Saurel (DTU-Aqua), Tom Doyle (NUI), Maggie Skirtun (WUR) and Morten Skogen (IMR).

Code availability

Not applicable.

Funding

This project received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 678193 (CERES – Climate change and European Aquatic Resources).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Longline Environment Ltd., 63, St. Mary Axe, London, EC3A 8AA, UK

    Alhambra Martínez Cubillo, João G. Ferreira & João Lencart-Silva

  2. DCEA, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa (NOVA), Quinta da Torre, 2829-516, Monte de Caparica, Portugal

    João G. Ferreira

  3. Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Weymouth, UK

    Nick G.H. Taylor, Adam Kennerley & James Guilder

  4. Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, UK

    Susan Kay

  5. Wageningen Marine Research, Wageningen University and Research, Yerseke, The Netherlands

    Pauline Kamermans

Authors
  1. Alhambra Martínez Cubillo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. João G. Ferreira
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. João Lencart-Silva
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Nick G.H. Taylor
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Adam Kennerley
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. James Guilder
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Susan Kay
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Pauline Kamermans
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

All authors contributed to the conception and design of the study; S.K. provided the outputs from the global and regionally downscaled climate models; J.L. downscaled the drivers generated by the regional-scale models to be used by the local-scale models; A.C. and J.F. developed the individual shellfish and finfish growth models; A.C. conducted the local-scale modelling; N.T., J.G. and A.K. provided the suitability maps. A.C. wrote the first draft of the manuscript; J.F., N.T., A.K. and J.G. wrote sections of the manuscript. All authors contributed to manuscript revision, read and approved the submitted version.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Alhambra Martínez Cubillo.

Ethics declarations

Ethics approval

Not applicable.

Consent to participate

All authors consented to participate in all aspects of this research and publication.

Consent for publication

All authors agree to the publication of this manuscript in Aquaculture International.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Disclaimer

This document reflects only the authors’ view. The European Commission is not responsible for the dissemination of CERES project results and for any use that may be made of the information.

Additional information

Handling Editor: Gavin Burnell

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Cubillo, A.M., Ferreira, J.G., Lencart-Silva, J. et al. Direct effects of climate change on productivity of European aquaculture. Aquacult Int 29, 1561–1590 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10499-021-00694-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10499-021-00694-6

Keywords

Search

Navigation