While population ageing is rising, the educational composition of the elderly remains rather heterogeneous. This study assesses the educational differences in future population ageing in Asia and Europe, and how future population ageing in Asia and Europe would change if the educational composition of its populations changed. A comparative population ageing measure (the Comparative Prospective Old-Age Threshold [CPOAT]) was used, which recalculates old-age thresholds after accounting for differences in life expectancy, and the likelihood of adults surviving to higher ages. Combined data from projected age- and sex-specific life-tables (from the United Nations) and projected age- and sex-specific survival ratios by different levels of education (from the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital) were used to construct projected life-tables (2015–2020, …, 2045–2050) by educational level and sex for different regions of Asia and Europe. Based on these life-tables, future comparative prospective old-age thresholds by educational level and sex were calculated. It was found that in both Asia and Europe, and among both men and women, the projected old-age thresholds are higher for higher educated people than for less-educated people. While Europe has a larger projected share of elderly in the population than Asia, Europe’s older population is better educated. In alternative future scenarios in which populations hypothetically have higher levels of education, the projected shares of elderly in the population decrease across all regions of Asia and Europe, but more so in Asia. The results highlight the effectiveness of investing in education as a policy response to the challenges associated with population ageing in Asia and Europe. Such investments are more effective in the Asian regions, where the educational infrastructure is less developed.

尽管人口老龄化加剧，但老年人的教育构成仍然相当参差不齐。本研究评估了亚洲和欧洲未来人口老龄化的教育差异，以及如果人口的教育构成发生变化，亚洲和欧洲未来人口老龄化将如何变化。使用了比较人口老龄化措施（比较预期老年阈值[CPOAT]），该方法在考虑预期寿命的差异以及成年人存活到更高年龄的可能性后重新计算老年阈值。综合来自预测的特定年龄和性别的生命表（来自联合国）以及不同教育水平的预测的特定年龄和性别的生存率（来自维特根斯坦人口学和全球人力资本中心）的数据，用于构建亚洲和欧洲不同地区按教育水平和性别划分的预计生命表（2015-2020，……，2045-2050）。根据这些生命表，计算出按教育水平和性别划分的未来比较预期老年阈值。研究发现，在亚洲和欧洲，无论男性还是女性，受教育程度较高的人的预计老年门槛都高于受教育程度较低的人。虽然欧洲的老年人口比例预计高于亚洲，但欧洲老年人口的教育程度更高。在假设人口受教育程度较高的未来情景中，亚洲和欧洲所有地区的老年人口比例预计都会下降，但亚洲的情况更为严重。结果凸显了教育投资作为应对亚洲和欧洲人口老龄化挑战的政策的有效性。 这种投资在教育基础设施欠发达的亚洲地区更为有效。