Carrying out risk assessments of agricultural drought disasters is helpful to understanding agricultural drought quantitatively and scientifically guiding drought prevention and drought relief work. In this paper, the risk assessment system and evaluation index of drought disasters are constructed, and they are composed of a drought risk subsystem, drought exposure subsystem, disaster damage sensitivity subsystem and drought resistance subsystem. Based on the grey matter-element analysis method, the agricultural drought risk evaluation model was established. Grey matter-element analysis method was used to evaluate the risk of agricultural drought in 18 regions of Henan Province, China in 2019. The results validation showed that high drought disaster risk area in Henan province is located in the western, north and the central area. This study provides a new method for the risk assessment of agricultural drought disasters. Understanding the risk in the study area can improve agricultural system resilience. This model could be used to provide support for increasing agricultural drought disaster resilience and risk management efficiency.

开展农业干旱灾害风险评估，有助于定量认识农业干旱，科学指导干旱防治和抗旱工作。本文构建了干旱灾害风险评估系统和评价指标，由干旱风险子系统，干旱暴露子系统，灾害破坏敏感性子系统和抗旱子系统组成。基于灰质元素分析方法，建立了农业干旱风险评价模型。采用灰质分析法对2019年河南省18个地区的农业干旱风险进行了评估。结果验证表明，河南省高干旱灾害风险区位于西部，北部和中部地区。 。该研究为农业干旱灾害风险评估提供了一种新的方法。了解研究区域的风险可以提高农业系统的抗灾能力。该模型可用于为提高农业干旱抗灾能力和风险管理效率提供支持。