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Risk assessment model of agricultural drought disaster based on grey matter-element analysis theory

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Abstract

Carrying out risk assessments of agricultural drought disasters is helpful to understanding agricultural drought quantitatively and scientifically guiding drought prevention and drought relief work. In this paper, the risk assessment system and evaluation index of drought disasters are constructed, and they are composed of a drought risk subsystem, drought exposure subsystem, disaster damage sensitivity subsystem and drought resistance subsystem. Based on the grey matter-element analysis method, the agricultural drought risk evaluation model was established. Grey matter-element analysis method was used to evaluate the risk of agricultural drought in 18 regions of Henan Province, China in 2019. The results validation showed that high drought disaster risk area in Henan province is located in the western, north and the central area. This study provides a new method for the risk assessment of agricultural drought disasters. Understanding the risk in the study area can improve agricultural system resilience. This model could be used to provide support for increasing agricultural drought disaster resilience and risk management efficiency.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported in part by the Henan Provincial Key Research and Development and Promotion Special Project (soft science research) in 2021.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Mathematics and Physics, Henan University of Urban Construction, Pingdingshan, 467036, Henan Province, China

    Huafeng Xu

  2. Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK

    Kexin Xu

  3. Institute of Artificial Intelligence, School of Computer Science and Informatics Faculty of Technology, De Montfort University, Leicester, LE1 9BH, UK

    Yingjie Yang

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  1. Huafeng Xu
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  2. Kexin Xu
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  3. Yingjie Yang
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Correspondence to Huafeng Xu.

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The authors declared that they have no conflicts of interest to this work. We declare that we do not have any commercial or associative interest that represents a conflict of interest in connection with the work submitted.

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Xu, H., Xu, K. & Yang, Y. Risk assessment model of agricultural drought disaster based on grey matter-element analysis theory. Nat Hazards 107, 2693–2707 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04681-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04681-1

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