Research summary

Project Safe Neighborhoods (PSN) is an increasingly popular violence and gun crime prevention program which aims to identify prolific violent offenders, and deter or incapacitate them from offending. While PSN programs generally show moderate effects on violence and gun crime reduction, questions remain about the magnitude and duration of effects given the heterogeneity in treatment applications across PSN programs. This study presents a quasi-experimental evaluation of a cutting-edge PSN initiative on violence and gun crime in Tampa, Florida over a 6-year period. Results indicate that PSN was associated with a 24.4% raw reduction in violence (d = −0.16) and a 24.0% reduction in gun crime rates (d = −0.22) for the treatment agency, while the control groups saw much smaller decreases in violence and gun crime over the same time period.

Policy implications

There are several policy implications, as PSN is currently endorsed by the U.S. Department of Justice to combat violence and gun crime, with billions spent to support these programs across the nation. First, this study suggests that the use of an objective scoring criteria comprised a multi-faceted array of evidence-based risk factors to identify the prolific offenders subject to the PSN intervention yields a notable effect on violence and gun crime reduction and unlike other PSN initiatives, this program benefits from not being reliant on more subjective or sweeping approaches to identify potential prolific offenders. Second, this approach was associated with substantial decreases in violence and gun crime over the 3-year follow-up period, but importantly, total arrests in the treatment jurisdiction also decreased. This has potential positive effects for police-community relations, and perceptions of police legitimacy and effectiveness. Finally, the crime reductions in this evaluation were estimated to prevent more than 250 victims of violence and gun crime, and provide support for a new approach for PSN initiatives to replicate in research and practice.

中文翻译：

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评估“安全社区计划”（PSN）计划对坦帕州暴力和枪支犯罪的影响：该计划行之有效并且持续吗？

研究总结

安全社区项目（PSN）是一个越来越受欢迎的暴力和枪支犯罪预防计划，旨在识别多产的暴力罪犯，并阻止或使他们丧失犯罪能力。虽然PSN计划通常显示出对暴力和减少枪支犯罪有中等程度的影响，但考虑到整个PSN计划在治疗应用上的异质性，人们仍然对影响的程度和持续时间存在疑问。这项研究提出了一项为期6年的针对佛罗里达州坦帕市暴力与枪支犯罪的前沿PSN计划的准实验评估。结果表明，PSN与暴力行为的原始减少24.4％（d = -0.16）和枪支犯罪率减少24.0％（d = -0.22），而对照组在同一时期内暴力和枪支犯罪的减少幅度要小得多。

政策影响

由于美国司法部目前已批准PSN打击暴力和枪支犯罪，因此有几项政策含义，并在全国范围内花费了数十亿美元来支持这些计划。首先，这项研究表明，客观评分标准的使用包含多方面的基于证据的风险因素，以识别受到PSN干预的多产罪犯对减少暴力和枪支犯罪产生显着影响，这与其他PSN举措不同，此计划的好处是无需依靠更主观或更广泛的方法来识别潜在的多产罪犯。其次，这种方法在三年的随访期内与暴力和枪支犯罪的大量减少有关，但重要的是，治疗管辖区的总逮捕也有所减少。这对警察-社区关系以及对警察的合法性和有效性的认识具有潜在的积极影响。最后，据估计，本次评估减少的犯罪数量可预防250多名暴力和枪支犯罪受害者，并为PSN举措在研究和实践中推广的新方法提供支持。