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Evaluating the impact of Project Safe Neighborhoods (PSN) initiative on violence and gun crime in Tampa: does it work and does it last?

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Abstract

Research summary

Project Safe Neighborhoods (PSN) is an increasingly popular violence and gun crime prevention program which aims to identify prolific violent offenders, and deter or incapacitate them from offending. While PSN programs generally show moderate effects on violence and gun crime reduction, questions remain about the magnitude and duration of effects given the heterogeneity in treatment applications across PSN programs. This study presents a quasi-experimental evaluation of a cutting-edge PSN initiative on violence and gun crime in Tampa, Florida over a 6-year period. Results indicate that PSN was associated with a 24.4% raw reduction in violence (d = −0.16) and a 24.0% reduction in gun crime rates (d = −0.22) for the treatment agency, while the control groups saw much smaller decreases in violence and gun crime over the same time period.

Policy implications

There are several policy implications, as PSN is currently endorsed by the U.S. Department of Justice to combat violence and gun crime, with billions spent to support these programs across the nation. First, this study suggests that the use of an objective scoring criteria comprised a multi-faceted array of evidence-based risk factors to identify the prolific offenders subject to the PSN intervention yields a notable effect on violence and gun crime reduction and unlike other PSN initiatives, this program benefits from not being reliant on more subjective or sweeping approaches to identify potential prolific offenders. Second, this approach was associated with substantial decreases in violence and gun crime over the 3-year follow-up period, but importantly, total arrests in the treatment jurisdiction also decreased. This has potential positive effects for police-community relations, and perceptions of police legitimacy and effectiveness. Finally, the crime reductions in this evaluation were estimated to prevent more than 250 victims of violence and gun crime, and provide support for a new approach for PSN initiatives to replicate in research and practice.

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Notes

  1. Gun crimes are defined as all Part 1 Uniform Crime Report offenses committed with a firearm (FBI, 2017).

  2. In the original Boston Operation Ceasefire study, less than 1% of the population under age 24 (about 1300 gang members) were responsible for about 60% of the juvenile homicides in Boston (Braga et al. 2001). This aligns with prior research which indicates that about 6% of all offenders are responsible for upwards of 60% of all crimes (Farrington 1995; Wolfgang et al. 1987).

  3. Weights for each item were selected in order to reflect the magnitude of predictive validity for gun crime and violence in criminological research and validated using an iterative process where known prolific violent and gun crime offenders were “scored out” using varied point values.

  4. All individuals arrested for at least two violent and/or firearm offenses in the past 2 years in Tampa were identified and “scored out” using the sum of the six VIP List criteria. The 2-year time frame was selected to ensure that only “current” offenders, and not those who may have desisted, were identified for this intervention. Subsequently, all individuals arrested for a violent crime or firearm offense in Tampa are scored out weekly by the TPD Violent Crimes Bureau crime analyst to determine if they met the criteria for VIP status.

  5. To ensure objective assessment of potential prolific offenders, no alteration of the scoring criteria was permitted.

  6. Florida’s felon in possession of a firearm charges (FL 790.23) result in a minimum 3-year sentence if actual possession is established, and no mandatory minimum if only constructive possession is established. The offense is associated with a longer sentence under U.S. Sentencing Guidelines (18 U.S.C. § 922(g)(1)) but is typically not prosecuted at the federal level without accompanying federal charges, due to resource constraints at the USAO.

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Acknowledgements

The authors sincerely thank Tom Loughran and Scott Decker for taking the time to read and provide very thoughtful comments on prior drafts of this article article, as their feedback had a substantial impact on the direction and quality of this study. They also thank Captain Paul Lusczynski of the Tampa Police Department, as this program would not exist without his leadership and long-time commitment to science and the community he serves.

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  1. Department of Criminology, University of South Florida, 4202 E. Fowler Avenue, SOC 107, Tampa, FL, 33620, USA

    Bryanna Fox & Scott F. Allen

  2. Center for Public Safety, Seminole State College of Florida, Sanford, FL, USA

    Alexander Toth

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Correspondence to Bryanna Fox.

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Fox, B., Allen, S.F. & Toth, A. Evaluating the impact of Project Safe Neighborhoods (PSN) initiative on violence and gun crime in Tampa: does it work and does it last?. J Exp Criminol 18, 543–567 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-021-09461-2

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