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Statistical property of record breaking events in the Korean housing market
Journal of the Korean Physical Society ( IF 0.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-10 , DOI: 10.1007/s40042-021-00123-0
Jinho Kim , Soon-Hyung Yook

We study the record statistics in the Korean housing market. To characterize the statistical properties of records, we analyze the record rate and the expected number of records for the transaction price of apartments and the volatility. From the numerical analysis, we find that the record rate of price in the overheated region is well described by the record rate obtained from the symmetric independent and identically distributed (IID) random sequence when the price change is relatively small. On the other hand, during the period for the subprime mortgage crisis, the record rate of price in the overheated regions is well approximated by that for the correlated sequence. More interestingly, when the price continuously increases the record rate of price shows a strong seasonal effect in the overheated region, while that in the normal region is simply described by the symmetric IID random sequence with constant drift on the average.



中文翻译:

韩国房屋市场破纪录事件的统计性质

我们研究了韩国住房市场的记录统计数据。为了表征记录的统计属性,我们分析了记录率以及公寓交易价格和波动率的预期记录数。从数值分析中,我们发现,当价格变化相对较小时,从对称独立且均匀分布(IID)随机序列获得的记录率可以很好地描述过热区域的价格记录率。另一方面,在次级抵押贷款危机期间,过热地区的价格记录率与相关序列的记录率非常接近。更有趣的是,当价格持续上涨时,价格记录率在过热地区表现出强烈的季节性影响,

更新日期:2021-03-10
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