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Statistical property of record breaking events in the Korean housing market

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Abstract

We study the record statistics in the Korean housing market. To characterize the statistical properties of records, we analyze the record rate and the expected number of records for the transaction price of apartments and the volatility. From the numerical analysis, we find that the record rate of price in the overheated region is well described by the record rate obtained from the symmetric independent and identically distributed (IID) random sequence when the price change is relatively small. On the other hand, during the period for the subprime mortgage crisis, the record rate of price in the overheated regions is well approximated by that for the correlated sequence. More interestingly, when the price continuously increases the record rate of price shows a strong seasonal effect in the overheated region, while that in the normal region is simply described by the symmetric IID random sequence with constant drift on the average.

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Notes

  1. We also check the raw transaction price data in each district for period I. From the data we find that the price of the apartment in every district in OR shows almost the identical behavior with Fig. 1a or b. Thus, the continuously increasing behavior for period I is not originated from the numerical artifact such as averaging or detrending of the data.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education (Republic of Korea) (Grant number: NRF-2019R1F1A1058549).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Social Network Science, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, 02447, South Korea

    Jinho Kim

  2. Department of Physics and Research Institute for Basic Sciences, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, 02447, South Korea

    Soon-Hyung Yook

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  1. Jinho Kim
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  2. Soon-Hyung Yook
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Correspondence to Soon-Hyung Yook.

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Kim, J., Yook, SH. Statistical property of record breaking events in the Korean housing market. J. Korean Phys. Soc. 78, 642–649 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40042-021-00123-0

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