The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) has generated seasonal and extended range hindcast products for 1981–2008 and 2003–2016, respectively, using the IITM-Climate Forecast System (IITM-CFS) coupled model at various resolutions and configurations. Notably, our observational analysis suggests that for the 1981–2008 period, the tropical Indo-Pacific drivers, namely, the canonical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ENSO Modoki, and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). are significantly associated with the observed Kharif rice production (KRP) of various rice-growing Indian states. In this paper, using the available hindcasts, we evaluate whether these state-of-the-art retrospective forecasts capture the relationship of the KRP of multiple states with the local rainfall as well as the tropical Indo-Pacific drivers, namely, the canonical ENSO, ENSO Modoki, and the IOD. Using techniques of anomaly correlation, partial correlation, and pattern correlation, we surmise that the IITM-CFS successfully simulate the observed association of the tropical Indo-Pacific drivers with the local rainfall of many states during the summer monsoon. Significantly, the observed relationship of the local KRP with various climate drivers is predicted well for several Indian states such as United Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Odisha, and Bihar. The basis seems to be the model’s ability to capture the teleconnections from the tropical Indo-Pacific drivers such as the IOD, canonical and Modoki ENSOs to the local climate, and consequently, the Kharif rice production.

印度热带气象研究所（IITM）使用IITM-气候预报系统（IITM-CFS）耦合模型在各种分辨率和配置下，分别产生了1981-2008年和2003-2016年的季节性和扩大范围的后预报产品。值得注意的是，我们的观测分析表明，在1981-2008年期间，热带印度洋-太平洋驱动器，即规范的厄尔尼诺现象-南方涛动（ENSO），ENSO Modoki和印度洋偶极子（IOD）。与观察到的印度各个水稻种植国家的Kharif水稻产量（KRP）显着相关。在本文中，我们使用现有的后预报来评估这些最新的回顾性预测是否反映了多个州的KRP与当地降雨以及热带印度洋-太平洋驱动器（即规范的ENSO）之间的关系。 ，ENSO Modoki和IOD。使用异常相关，部分相关和模式相关的技术，我们推测IITM-CFS成功地模拟了热带印度洋-太平洋驱动器与夏季季风期间许多州的局部降雨之间的观测关联。显着地，印度联合邦，安纳德拉邦，卡纳塔克邦，奥里萨邦和比哈尔邦等印度几个州对当地KRP与各种气候驱动因素之间的观察关系进行了很好的预测。该模型的基础似乎是能够捕获从热带印度洋-太平洋驱动器（如IOD，规范和Modoki ENSO）到当地气候以及因此的哈里夫大米产量的遥相关性。