Abstract
The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) has generated seasonal and extended range hindcast products for 1981–2008 and 2003–2016, respectively, using the IITM-Climate Forecast System (IITM-CFS) coupled model at various resolutions and configurations. Notably, our observational analysis suggests that for the 1981–2008 period, the tropical Indo-Pacific drivers, namely, the canonical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ENSO Modoki, and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). are significantly associated with the observed Kharif rice production (KRP) of various rice-growing Indian states. In this paper, using the available hindcasts, we evaluate whether these state-of-the-art retrospective forecasts capture the relationship of the KRP of multiple states with the local rainfall as well as the tropical Indo-Pacific drivers, namely, the canonical ENSO, ENSO Modoki, and the IOD. Using techniques of anomaly correlation, partial correlation, and pattern correlation, we surmise that the IITM-CFS successfully simulate the observed association of the tropical Indo-Pacific drivers with the local rainfall of many states during the summer monsoon. Significantly, the observed relationship of the local KRP with various climate drivers is predicted well for several Indian states such as United Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Odisha, and Bihar. The basis seems to be the model’s ability to capture the teleconnections from the tropical Indo-Pacific drivers such as the IOD, canonical and Modoki ENSOs to the local climate, and consequently, the Kharif rice production.
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Acknowledgments
We acknowledge Mr Kiran Salunke, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India, for their assistance while extracting IITM-CFS data. Also, We acknowledge the University Grants Commission & the Ministry of Tribal Affairs, Government of India, for providing the research fellowship. Also, we are thankful to our reviewers for their valuable comments and kind suggestions. Figures in the manuscript have been created using the COLA/GrADS.
Availability of data and material
The HadlSST data set has been downloaded from < https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/ >. IMD rainfall and CFSv2 seasonal and extended-range hindcast data sets have been collected from IITM, Pune. The crop data set has been downloaded from < www.indiastats.com >, which is provided by the Govt. of India.
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All the calculations and plots have been done using various tools such as NCL, Grads, and CDO.
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UGC- Rajiv Gandhi National Fellowship, Government of India.
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Hemadri Bhusan Amat did all the calculations and analysis and wrote the manuscript by taking inputs from all the co-authors. Maheswar Pradhan and Suryachandra A. Rao provided the IITM-CFSv2 seasonal hindcast data set and co-wrote the manuscript. Charan Teja Tejavath helped in collecting the agriculture data sets used in this study and assisted in the analysis and co-wrote the manuscript. Avijit Dey and Atul Kumar Sahai provided the IITM-CFSv2 extended-range hindcast data analysis and contributed to the manuscript. Karumuri Ashok (Corresponding author) conceived the problem and co-wrote the manuscript.
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Amat, H.B., Pradhan, M., Tejavath, C.T. et al. Value addition to forecasting: towards Kharif rice crop predictability through local climate variations associated with Indo-Pacific climate drivers. Theor Appl Climatol 144, 917–929 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03572-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03572-6