Abstract Analysis of influential factors to evacuation decision, a key input to evacuation planning, is important for better management in future evacuations. Evacuation decision indicates the choice of households to fully, partially evacuate or stay from the area at risk of impending hazard. This study aims to develop a model of flood evacuation decision using data collected from households in Bagong Silangan, one of the biggest sub-districts in terms of land area and population as well as one of the most depressed communities in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines. A post flood event face to face interview was conducted drawing information including broad range of socio-demographic and household characteristics, their capacities and hazard-related ones. The data was eventually processed and analyzed using discrete choice model under the utility maximizing framework. Findings indicate that factors having strong influence to evacuation decision include age of the household head, income, house ownership status, number of house floor levels, and flood level. In addition, gender, education and type of work of the head of the household, number of household members, and distance from the source of flood show some level of influence to the decision. An internal validation using bootstrap technique shows consistent results. This study provides useful insights for understanding household flood evacuation decision.

中文翻译：

---

菲律宾高风险市区的洪水疏散决策模型

摘要疏散决策的影响因素分析是疏散计划的关键输入，对于未来疏散中的更好管理至关重要。疏散决定表明选择住户进行全部，部分疏散或远离有潜在危险的区域。这项研究的目的是使用从巴贡士兰甘（Bagong Silangan）的家庭收集的数据开发洪水疏散决策模型，该地区是土地面积和人口最大的分区之一，也是马尼拉大都会奎松市最郁闷的社区之一。菲律宾。对洪水后的事件进行了面对面的采访，收集了包括广泛的社会人口统计学和家庭特征，其能力以及与灾害相关的特征在内的信息。最终，在效用最大化框架下使用离散选择模型对数据进行了处理和分析。调查结果表明，对撤离决策产生重大影响的因素包括户主的年龄，收入，房屋所有权状况，房屋层数和洪水位。此外，性别，户主的教育程度和工作类型，家庭成员的数量以及与洪水源的距离都对决策产生一定程度的影响。使用引导程序技术的内部验证显示出一致的结果。这项研究为理解家庭洪水疏散决策提供了有用的见解。房屋楼层数和洪水位。此外，性别，户主的教育程度和工作类型，家庭成员的数量以及与洪水源的距离都对决策产生一定程度的影响。使用引导程序技术的内部验证显示出一致的结果。这项研究为理解家庭洪水疏散决策提供了有用的见解。房屋楼层数和洪水位。此外，性别，户主的教育程度和工作类型，家庭成员的数量以及与洪水源的距离都对决策产生一定程度的影响。使用引导程序技术的内部验证显示出一致的结果。这项研究为理解家庭洪水疏散决策提供了有用的见解。