Flood evacuation decision modeling for high risk urban area in the Philippines

Abstract

Analysis of influential factors to evacuation decision, a key input to evacuation planning, is important for better management in future evacuations. Evacuation decision indicates the choice of households to fully, partially evacuate or stay from the area at risk of impending hazard. This study aims to develop a model of flood evacuation decision using data collected from households in Bagong Silangan, one of the biggest sub-districts in terms of land area and population as well as one of the most depressed communities in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines. A post flood event face to face interview was conducted drawing information including broad range of socio-demographic and household characteristics, their capacities and hazard-related ones. The data was eventually processed and analyzed using discrete choice model under the utility maximizing framework. Findings indicate that factors having strong influence to evacuation decision include age of the household head, income, house ownership status, number of house floor levels, and flood level. In addition, gender, education and type of work of the head of the household, number of household members, and distance from the source of flood show some level of influence to the decision. An internal validation using bootstrap technique shows consistent results. This study provides useful insights for understanding household flood evacuation decision.