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Which Fault Threatens Me Most? Bridging the Gap Between Geologic Data-Providers and Seismic Risk Practitioners
Frontiers in Earth Science ( IF 2.689 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-28 , DOI: 10.3389/feart.2020.626401
Oona Scotti; Francesco Visini; Joanna Faure Walker; Laura Peruzza; Bruno Pace; Lucilla Benedetti; Paolo Boncio; Gerald Roberts

The aim of the Fault2SHA European Seismological Commission Working Group Central Apennines laboratory is to enhance the use of geological data in fault-based seismic hazard and risk assessment and to promote synergies between data providers (earthquake geologists), end-users and decision-makers. Here we use the Fault2SHA Central Apennines Database where geologic data are provided in the form of characterized fault traces, grouped into faults and main faults, with individual slip rate estimates. The proposed methodology first derives slip rate profiles for each main fault. Main faults are then divided into distinct sections of length comparable to the seismogenic depth to allow consideration of variable slip rates and the exploration of multi-fault ruptures in the computations. The methodology further allows exploration of epistemic uncertainties documented in the database (e.g., main fault definition, slip rates) as well as additional parameters required to characterize the seismogenic potential of fault sources (e.g., 3D fault geometries). To illustrate the power of the methodology, in this paper we consider only one branch of the uncertainties affecting each step of the computation procedure. The resulting hazard and typological risk maps allow both data providers and end-users 1) to visualize the faults that threaten specific localities the most, 2) to appreciate the density of observations used for the computation of slip rate profiles, and 3) interrogate the degree of confidence on the fault parameters documented in the database (activity and location certainty). Finally, closing the loop, the methodology highlights priorities for future geological investigations in terms of where improvements in the density of data within the database would lead to the greatest decreases in epistemic uncertainties in the hazard and risk calculations. Key to this new generation of fault-based seismic hazard and risk methodology are the user-friendly open source codes provided with this publication, documenting, step-by-step, the link between the geological database and the relative contribution of each section to seismic hazard and risk at specific localities.



中文翻译:

哪个故障对我的困扰最大?缩小地质数据提供者与地震风险从业者之间的差距

Fault2SHA欧洲地震委员会工作组中央亚平宁山脉实验室的目的是在基于断层的地震灾害和风险评估中增加地质数据的使用,并促进数据提供者(地震地质学家),最终用户和决策者之间的协同作用。在这里,我们使用Fault2SHA中央亚平宁山脉数据库,该数据库以特征化的断层迹线的形式提供地质数据,分为断层和主要断层,并具有单独的滑动率估算值。所提出的方法首先得出每个主要故障的滑移率曲线。然后将主要断层分成与地震发生深度相当的不同长度段,以考虑可变的滑移率并在计算中探索多断层破裂。该方法还允许探索记录在数据库中的认知不确定性(例如,主要断层定义,滑移率)以及表征断层源的潜在地震成因所需的其他参数(例如3D断层几何形状)。为了说明该方法的强大功能,在本文中,我们仅考虑影响计算过程每一步的不确定性的一个分支。由此产生的危险和类型风险图使数据提供者和最终用户都可以:1)可视化对特定地区造成最大威胁的故障,2)欣赏用于计算滑移率分布图的观测密度,以及3)询问数据库中记录的故障参数的置信度(活动和位置确定性)。最后,结束循环,该方法论着重指出了未来地质调查的重点,即数据库中数据密度的提高将在危害和风险计算中最大程度地减少认识不确定性。新一代基于断层的地震危险性和风险方法的关键是本出版物附带的用户友好型开放源代码,逐步地将其记录在案,并记录了地质数据库与各部分对地震的相对贡献之间的联系。特定地点的危害和风险。

更新日期:2021-02-22
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