Abstract

We consider a methodology for organizing hybrid computing structures to simulate abrupt changes in controlled natural processes and analyzing phases of extreme environmental phenomena. Systems of differential equations with the dynamically redefinable right-hand side at special moments (events) are used. The truth conditions for transitions are obtained from computing other equations for additional characteristics of the state of a generation. Threshold states in process modeling are the result of the inclusion of trigger functions. Their values on the right-hand side are specifically different from the neutral value only in narrow ranges of the space of changing characteristics of a hybrid system and depend on the initial conditions. The restricted limits of functions and their domain of values rest on the core of the threshold effects for the simulated biosystem, which are observed under special conditions. The method allows us to implement actual qualitative changes in management scenarios as bifurcations of the appearance (reduction) of equilibrium states or the boundary crisis of a complex attractor consisting of intervals scattered in a limited area. Computational scenarios for different population processes are investigated. The collapse of fish stocks is described in the model by the examples of cod in the North Atlantic and sturgeon in the Caspian Sea. The rapid outbreak of their abundance is modeled according to observations on the pulsation of the population size of pests of relict evergreen forests. The threshold scenario of the outbreak of insects in the scenario ends spontaneously due to the local exhaustion of forest resources with a sharp transition to fluctuations of the pest, which are ordinary for the environment. The methodology of organizing the structure for the population model is summarized to predict a wide range of extreme processes related to rapid changes in controlled biological systems and the spread of unwanted biological invasions.

中文翻译：

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建模生命系统中极端状态的计算方案的方法论

摘要

我们考虑一种用于组织混合计算结构的方法，以模拟受控自然过程中的突然变化并分析极端环境现象的各个阶段。使用在特殊时刻（事件）具有可动态重新定义右侧的微分方程组。过渡的真实条件是通过计算其他方程式获得的，用于生成状态的其他特征。流程建模中的阈值状态是包含触发功能的结果。它们在右侧的值仅在混合系统变化特性的空间狭窄范围内与中性值不同，并且取决于初始条件。功能的限制及其值的范围位于模拟生物系统的阈值效应的核心，这是在特殊条件下观察到的。该方法允许我们在管理方案中实现实际的质变，例如平衡状态的出现（减少）的分叉或由分散在有限区域中的间隔组成的复杂吸引子的边界危机。研究了不同人口过程的计算方案。该模型以北大西洋鳕鱼和里海st鱼为例描述了鱼类种群的崩溃。根据对常绿常绿森林有害生物种群数量脉动的观察，对它们的快速爆发进行了建模。在这种情况下，由于当地的森林资源枯竭，并且向有害生物的波动急剧过渡（这对环境很普遍），因此昆虫爆发的阈值情景自发结束。总结了组织种群模型结构的方法，以预测与受控生物系统的快速变化和有害生物入侵的扩散有关的各种极端过程。