Exchange rate fluctuations could influence economic activity not only via the standard trade channel, but also through a financial channel, which operates through the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on borrowers’ balance sheets and lenders’ risk-taking capacity. This paper explores the “triangular” relationship between (1) the strength of the US dollar, (2) cross-border bank flows and (3) real investment. We conduct two sets of empirical exercises—a macro (country-level) study and a micro (firm-level) study. We find that a stronger dollar is associated with lower growth in dollar-denominated cross-border bank flows and lower real investment in emerging market economies. An important policy implication of our findings is that a stronger US dollar has real macroeconomic effects that go in the opposite direction to the standard trade channel.

中文翻译：

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美元汇率作为全球风险因素：来自投资的证据

汇率波动不仅可以通过标准贸易渠道影响经济活动，而且可以通过金融渠道影响经济活动，金融渠道的运作方式是汇率波动对借款人的资产负债表和贷方的风险承受能力的影响。本文探讨了（1）美元汇率，（2）跨境银行资金流动和（3）实际投资之间的“三角”关系。我们进行了两组实证研究-宏观（国家级）研究和微观（公司级）研究。我们发现，美元走强与以美元计价的跨境银行流量的增长下降以及新兴市场经济体的实际投资下降有关。我们研究结果的重要政策含义是，美元走强会对实际宏观经济产生影响，而这种影响与标准贸易渠道的方向相反。