Protectionist sentiments have been rising globally in recent years. The consequences of a surge in protectionist measures present policy challenges for emerging markets (EMs), which have become increasingly exposed to global trade. This paper serves two main purposes. First, we collect several stylized facts that characterize EMs’ role in the new geography of trade. We focus on differences between advanced economies (AEs) and EMs in trade linkages, production structures, and factor supplies. Second, we build a dynamic, general equilibrium, quantitative trade model featuring multiple countries, sectors, and factors of production. The model is motivated by and geared to jointly match the facts we present. We use the model to estimate the long-run global impacts of rising trade barriers on EMs—both direct impacts and spillovers through third-country effects. Heterogeneity in openness, production structure, trade linkages, and factor supplies leads to large differences between the impacts on AEs versus EMs. We find that variations in both technological comparative advantage and factor supplies play key roles in shaping these differences.

近年来，全球贸易保护主义情绪一直在上升。贸易保护主义措施激增的后果给新兴市场（EM）带来了政策挑战，而新兴市场已日益暴露于全球贸易中。本文有两个主要目的。首先，我们收集了几个风格化的事实，这些事实描述了新兴市场在新的贸易领域中的作用。我们关注贸易联系，生产结构和要素供给方面的发达经济体和新兴市场之间的差异。其次，我们建立了一个动态的，总体均衡的，定量的贸易模型，其中包含多个国家，部门和生产要素。该模型是由动机驱动的，旨在共同匹配我们呈现的事实。我们使用该模型来估算贸易壁垒上升对新兴市场的长期全球影响，包括直接影响和通过第三国影响的溢出。开放性，生产结构，贸易联系和要素供给的异质性导致对AE和EM的影响之间存在巨大差异。我们发现技术比较优势和要素供给方面的差异在塑造这些差异中起着关键作用。