We use data on structural primary balances for Latin America to estimate effects of fiscal consolidations. Identification relies on a doubly robust estimator that controls for the endogeneity of fiscal policy using inverse probability weighting. Results suggest a negative multiplier on impact, with the economy starting to recover from the second year on and expanding after 5 years. Revenue-based adjustments are more contractionary on impact than expenditure-based adjustments. Among demand components, we find consumption to be generally less responsive to consolidations than investment. Results also depend on the initial levels of debt and taxation. In comparison with OECD evidence, Latin American countries display larger, but stop-and-go consolidations, with state-dependent long-run multipliers.

中文翻译：

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拉丁美洲财政合并的影响

我们使用拉丁美洲的结构性基本余额数据来估算财政合并的影响。识别依赖于使用鲁棒的估计器，该估计器使用逆概率加权来控制财政政策的内生性。结果表明影响是负增长，经济从第二年开始恢复，并在5年后扩大。基于收入的调整比基于支出的调整更具影响力。在需求组成部分中，我们发现消费对合并的反应通常不如投资。结果还取决于债务和税收的初始水平。与经合组织的证据相比，拉丁美洲国家表现出更大的规模，但走走停停的整合，并依赖国家的长期乘数。