In this paper the authors analyze the potential determinants of US outward FDI stock with a particular focus on the euro effect during the period 1985–2017. To this aim, they consider a large set of candidate variables suggested both by theory and previous empirical analysis. They select the covariates using Bayesian model averaging, a data-driven methodology. Their sample includes a total of 56 host countries, that represent around the 70% of US outward FDI stock. They study the role of the euro on American FDI both in Europe and the rest of the world. In Europe, they consider various country groups: the European Union (EU), the euro area (EA), as well as core and periphery within this last group. They conclude that many variables studied by previous FDI literature cannot be considered robust determinants. Moreover, US OFDI is explained by both horizontal and vertical motives. However, HFDI strategies predominate in EA core countries, whereas VFDI prevails in the periphery. As for the euro effect, the common currency seems to have played an important role encouraging US FDI, being a crucial element in the convergence of EA periphery to its core. In addition, the results indicate that the adoption of the euro has favoured VFDI to the detriment of HFDI.

在本文中，作者分析了美国对外直接投资存量的潜在决定因素，并特别关注了1985-2017年期间的欧元效应。为此，他们考虑了理论和以往经验分析都建议的大量候选变量。他们使用贝叶斯模型平均法（数据驱动的方法）选择协变量。他们的样本包括总共56个东道国，约占美国对外直接投资存量的70％。他们研究了欧元在欧洲和世界其他地区对欧元在美国外国直接投资中的作用。在欧洲，他们考虑了各个国家/地区组：欧盟（EU），欧元区（EA）以及最后一个组中的核心和外围国家。他们得出的结论是，以前外国直接投资文献研究的许多变量不能被视为可靠的决定因素。而且，美国对外直接投资由水平和垂直动机来解释。但是，HFDI策略在EA核心国家占主导地位，而VFDI在边缘国家占主导地位。至于欧元效应，通用货币似乎在鼓励美国外国直接投资方面发挥了重要作用，这是欧洲共同体外围国家与其核心汇合的关键因素。此外，结果表明，欧元的采用有利于VFDI损害HFDI。