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RECONCILED ESTIMATES AND NOWCASTS OF REGIONAL OUTPUT IN THE UK
National Institute Economic Review ( IF 1.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-28 , DOI: 10.1017/nie.2020.29
Gary Koop , Stuart McIntyre , James Mitchell , Aubrey Poon

There is renewed interest in levelling up the regions of the UK. The combination of social and political discontent, and the sluggishness of key UK macroeconomic indicators like productivity growth, has led to increased interest in understanding the regional economies of the UK. In turn, this has led to more investment in economic statistics. Specifically, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently started to produce quarterly regional GDP data for the nine English regions and Wales that date back to 2012Q1. This complements existing real GVA data for the regions available from the ONS on an annual basis back to 1998; with the devolved administrations of Scotland and Northern Ireland producing their own quarterly output measures. In this paper we reconcile these two data sources along with UK quarterly output data that date back to 1970. This enables us to produce both more timely real terms estimates of quarterly economic growth in the regions of the UK and a new reconciled historical time-series of quarterly regional real output data from 1970. We explore a number of features of interest of these new data. This includes producing a new quarterly regional productivity series and commenting on the evolution of regional productivity growth in the UK.

中文翻译:

英国区域产出的调整后估计和临近预报

人们对升级英国地区重新产生了兴趣。社会和政治不满,以及生产率增长等关键英国宏观经济指标的低迷,导致人们对了解英国区域经济的兴趣增加。反过来,这导致对经济统计的更多投资。具体而言,国家统计局 (ONS) 最近开始为 2012 年第一季度的九个英格兰地区和威尔士编制季度地区 GDP 数据。这补充了自 1998 年以来每年可从 ONS 获得的地区的现有实际 GVA 数据;苏格兰和北爱尔兰的权力下放政府制定了自己的季度产出指标。在本文中,我们将这两个数据源与可追溯到 1970 年的英国季度产出数据进行了核对。这使我们能够更及时地对英国地区的季度经济增长做出更及时的实际估计,以及从 1970 年开始对季度地区实际产出数据进行协调的新历史时间序列。我们探讨了这些新数据的一些有趣特征. 这包括制作新的季度区域生产力系列并评论英国区域生产力增长的演变。
更新日期:2020-07-28
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