This paper aims to focus on the Tunisian National Innovation System (NIS) and the conditions that might foster its aptitude to support socio-economic transformation.,The paper adopts an original twofold foresight methodology combining the analysis of key players with the exploration of scenarios. While usually, a foresight exercise considers only one of these two futures studies approaches.,The “Dynamic Islands System” scenario reflects the present situation and current trends. It shows that all expected components of an efficient system are in place, but they are evolving more or less independently. “Connected System” is the most desirable option because it reflects the potential to improve strongly productivity, competitiveness and social inclusion. The “Dislocated System” is a third possible but risky scenario. Despite the interesting insights provided through futures imaging, the scenario approach is not sufficient in providing indications of how and which actors can make happen the changes needed to move towards the desired state. So, a second step of the adopted twofold foresight approach addresses the role of key players. The analysis aims to reveal which actors are in a position to implement the required changes and thereby support the transition from the present to the desired scenario.,The challenges ahead are then pointed out, namely, that the private sector and firms would have to take the lead in the future; and that the less influential players would have to work side by side to be able to direct the NIS to the “Connected scenario”.,The clue in this approach is to transform a sub-optimal reality to achieve a desired end-state by understanding the trend scenario. The actors’ analysis helps to clarify the respective attitudes and concerns of the players vis-a-vis the required changes. In this two-step foresight approach, the desired scenario is considered as a specific project.

中文翻译：

---

突尼斯国家创新系统的未来：参与者的分析重点

本文旨在关注突尼斯国家创新体系（NIS）及其可能支持该体系支持社会经济转型的条件。本文采用了原始的双重预见性方法，将主要参与者的分析与情景探索相结合。通常，前瞻性练习仅考虑这两种未来研究方法中的一种。“动态群岛系统”方案反映了当前情况和当前趋势。它表明，一个有效系统的所有预期组成部分都已经到位，但它们或多或少地独立发展。“互联系统”是最可取的选择，因为它反映了提高生产力，竞争力和社会包容性的潜力。“错位系统”是第三种可能但有风险的方案。尽管通过期货成像提供了有趣的见解，但情景方法不足以提供有关如何以及由哪些参与者来实现朝理想状态转变所需的指示。因此，采用双重预见性方法的第二步解决了关键参与者的角色。分析的目的是揭示哪些参与者可以实施所需的更改，从而支持从目前到预期的过渡。然后指出了未来的挑战，即私营部门和企业必须采取的行动未来的领先者；并且影响力较小的参与者将必须并肩工作才能将NIS定向到“已连接的场景”。此方法的线索是通过了解趋势方案来转换次优现实，以实现所需的最终状态。演员的分析有助于阐明玩家对所需更改的态度和关注点。在这种两步式的预见方法中，所需的方案被视为一个特定的项目。