Tunisian National Innovation System futures: an actors’ analysis focus

This paper aims to focus on the Tunisian National Innovation System (NIS) and the conditions that might foster its aptitude to support socio-economic transformation.

The paper adopts an original twofold foresight methodology combining the analysis of key players with the exploration of scenarios. While usually, a foresight exercise considers only one of these two futures studies approaches.

The “Dynamic Islands System” scenario reflects the present situation and current trends. It shows that all expected components of an efficient system are in place, but they are evolving more or less independently. “Connected System” is the most desirable option because it reflects the potential to improve strongly productivity, competitiveness and social inclusion. The “Dislocated System” is a third possible but risky scenario. Despite the interesting insights provided through futures imaging, the scenario approach is not sufficient in providing indications of how and which actors can make happen the changes needed to move towards the desired state. So, a second step of the adopted twofold foresight approach addresses the role of key players. The analysis aims to reveal which actors are in a position to implement the required changes and thereby support the transition from the present to the desired scenario.

The challenges ahead are then pointed out, namely, that the private sector and firms would have to take the lead in the future; and that the less influential players would have to work side by side to be able to direct the NIS to the “Connected scenario”.

The clue in this approach is to transform a sub-optimal reality to achieve a desired end-state by understanding the trend scenario. The actors’ analysis helps to clarify the respective attitudes and concerns of the players vis-à-vis the required changes. In this two-step foresight approach, the desired scenario is considered as a specific project.