Estimating potential output and the corresponding output gap plays a key role, not only for inflation forecasting and the assessment of the economic cycle, but also for the fiscal governance of the European Union (EU). Potential output is, however, an unobservable and extremely uncertain variable. Empirical measurements differ considerably depending on the econometric approach adopted, the specification of the data generating process and the dataset used. The method adopted at the EU level, which was agreed within the Output Gap Working Group, has been subject to considerable debate. The fiscal councils of the various Member States contribute to the discussion over the output gap modelling. This paper aims at estimating the potential output of the Italian economy, using a combination of five different models proposed by the relevant literature. More specifically, in addition to a statistical filter, we use unobserved components models based on the Phillips curve, the Okun law and the production function. The approach adopted allows to reconcile the parsimony of the econometric specification with the economic interpretation of the results. Estimates of the output gap obtained with the five selected models present important properties: low pro-cyclicity, stability with respect to the preliminary data and consistency with the economic theory. The use of multiple models also enables the construction of confidence bands for the output gap estimates, which are helpful for policy analysis. In the empirical application for Italy, estimates and forecasts of the output gap recently produced by relevant organisations tend to fall within the confidence interval calculated on the basis of the five selected models.

中文翻译：

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估计意大利经济产出缺口的系统方法

估计潜在产出和相应的产出缺口起着关键作用，不仅对通胀预测和经济周期评估，而且对欧盟（EU）的财政治理也很重要。然而，潜在产出是一个不可观察且极其不确定的变量。根据所采用的计量经济学方法、数据生成过程的规范和所使用的数据集，实证测量有很大差异。欧盟层面采用的方法在产出差距工作组内达成一致，一直受到相当大的辩论。各个成员国的财政委员会为关于产出缺口模型的讨论做出了贡献。本文旨在使用相关文献提出的五种不同模型的组合来估计意大利经济的潜在产出。更具体地说，除了统计过滤器之外，我们还使用基于菲利普斯曲线、奥肯定律和生产函数的未观察到的组件模型。所采用的方法允许将计量经济学规范的简约性与结果的经济解释相协调。使用五个选定模型得出的产出缺口估计值具有重要特性：低顺周期性、初步数据的稳定性以及与经济理论的一致性。使用多个模型还可以构建产出缺口估计的置信区间，这有助于政策分析。在意大利的实证应用中，