In this paper, we describe the evolution of welfare state spending in Portugal in the period 1980–2018 and consider its implications for economic growth. Overall, welfare spending in Portugal increased over this period as a percentage of GDP, but stagnated or even declined in recent years. Our empirical analysis attempts to quantify the contribution of welfare spending to economic growth in that period. We provide a comprehensive robustness check by means of specification-curve analysis. We conclude that the sign of the effect varies with the specification choices, but neither positive nor negative estimates are robust.

中文翻译：

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福利国家与经济增长有关吗？葡萄牙的证据

在本文中，我们描述了 1980 年至 2018 年期间葡萄牙福利国家支出的演变，并考虑了其对经济增长的影响。总体而言，葡萄牙的福利支出在此期间占 GDP 的百分比有所增加，但近年来停滞不前甚至下降。我们的实证分析试图量化该时期福利支出对经济增长的贡献。我们通过规格曲线分析提供全面的稳健性检查。我们得出结论，效应的符号随规格选择而变化，但正估计和负估计都不稳健。