Context

Climate change will alter the global distribution of climatically suitable space for many species, including agricultural crops. In some locations, warmer temperatures may offer opportunities to grow novel, high value crops, but non-climatic factors also inform agricultural decision-making. These non-climatic factors can be difficult to quantify and incorporate into suitability assessments, particularly for uncertain futures.

Objective

To demonstrate how qualitative and quantitative techniques can be combined to assess crop suitability with consideration for climatic and non-climatic factors.

Methods

We carried out a horizon scanning exercise that used Delphi methodology to identify possible novel crops for a region in south-west England. We show how the results of the expert panel assessment could be combined with a crop suitability model that only considered climate to identify the best crops to grow in the region.

Results and conclusions

Whilst improving climate and crop models will enhance the ability to identify environmental constraints to growing novel crops, we propose horizon scanning as a useful tool to understand constraints on crop suitability that are beyond the parameterisation of these models and that may affect agricultural decisions.

Significance

A similar combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches to assessing crop suitability could be used to identify potential novel crops in other regions and to support more holistic assessments of crop suitability in a changing world.

中文翻译：

---

定性和定量方法相结合，以评估气候变暖下新型作物的前景

语境

气候变化将改变包括农作物在内的许多物种的气候适应空间的全球分布。在某些地区，较高的温度可能提供种植新颖，高价值农作物的机会，但非气候因素也会影响农业决策。这些非气候因素可能难以量化，难以纳入适用性评估，尤其是对于不确定的未来。

目的

演示如何结合定性和定量技术来评估作物的适宜性，同时考虑气候和非气候因素。

方法

我们进行了一次地平线扫描演习，该演习使用了Delphi方法论来确定英格兰西南部某个地区可能存在的新作物。我们展示了专家小组评估的结果如何与仅考虑气候以识别该地区最佳农作物的作物适宜性模型相结合。

结果与结论

虽然改善气候和作物模型将增强识别新型作物生长的环境制约因素的能力，但我们建议采用水平扫描作为了解这些模型参数化范围之外可能影响农业决策的作物适宜性制约因素的有用工具。

意义

定性和定量方法相结合的评估作物适宜性的类似方法可用于识别其他地区潜在的新型农作物，并支持在不断变化的世界中对作物适宜性进行更全面的评估。