Non-climatic factors affect agricultural decisions but are difficult to quantify in crop suitability assessments.
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We combine qualitative and quantitative techniques to assess crop suitability based on climatic and non-climatic factors.
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Horizon scanning is used to identify possible novel crops for a region and combined with the results of a climate model.
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Horizon scanning is shown to be a useful tool to understand non-climatic constraints on crop suitability.
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The approach could be used elsewhere to support holistic assessments of crop suitability and to aid farming decisions.
Abstract
Context
Climate change will alter the global distribution of climatically suitable space for many species, including agricultural crops. In some locations, warmer temperatures may offer opportunities to grow novel, high value crops, but non-climatic factors also inform agricultural decision-making. These non-climatic factors can be difficult to quantify and incorporate into suitability assessments, particularly for uncertain futures.
Objective
To demonstrate how qualitative and quantitative techniques can be combined to assess crop suitability with consideration for climatic and non-climatic factors.
Methods
We carried out a horizon scanning exercise that used Delphi methodology to identify possible novel crops for a region in south-west England. We show how the results of the expert panel assessment could be combined with a crop suitability model that only considered climate to identify the best crops to grow in the region.
Results and conclusions
Whilst improving climate and crop models will enhance the ability to identify environmental constraints to growing novel crops, we propose horizon scanning as a useful tool to understand constraints on crop suitability that are beyond the parameterisation of these models and that may affect agricultural decisions.
Significance
A similar combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches to assessing crop suitability could be used to identify potential novel crops in other regions and to support more holistic assessments of crop suitability in a changing world.
