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Use of Network Analysis and Spread Models to Target Control Actions for Bovine Tuberculosis in a State from Brazil
Microorganisms ( IF 4.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-22 , DOI: 10.3390/microorganisms9020227
Nicolas Cespedes Cardenas , Pilar Pozo , Francisco Paulo Nunes Lopes , José H. H. Grisi-Filho , Julio Alvarez

Livestock movements create complex dynamic interactions among premises that can be represented, interpreted, and used for epidemiological purposes. These movements are a very important part of the production chain but may also contribute to the spread of infectious diseases through the transfer of infected animals over large distances. Social network analysis (SNA) can be used to characterize cattle trade patterns and to identify highly connected premises that may act as hubs in the movement network, which could be subjected to targeted control measures in order to reduce the transmission of communicable diseases such as bovine tuberculosis (TB). Here, we analyzed data on cattle movement and slaughterhouse surveillance for detection of TB-like lesions (TLL) over the 2016–2018 period in the state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS) in Brazil with the following aims: (i) to characterize cattle trade describing the static full, yearly, and monthly snapshots of the network contact trade, (ii) to identify clusters in the space and contact networks of premises from which animals with TLL originated, and (iii) to evaluate the potential of targeted control actions to decrease TB spread in the cattle population of RS using a stochastic metapopulation disease transmission model that simulated within-farm and between-farm disease spread. We found heterogeneous densities of premises and animals in the study area. The analysis of the contact network revealed a highly connected (~94%) trade network, with strong temporal trends, especially for May and November. The TLL cases were significantly clustered in space and in the contact network, suggesting the potential for both local (e.g., fence-to-fence) and movement-mediated TB transmission. According to the disease spread model, removing the top 7% connected farms based on degree and betweenness could reduce the total number of infected farms over three years by >50%. In conclusion, the characterization of the cattle network suggests that highly connected farms may play a role in TB dissemination, although being close to infected farms was also identified as a risk factor for having animals with TLL. Surveillance and control actions based on degree and betweenness could be useful to break the transmission cycle between premises in RS.

中文翻译:

使用网络分析和传播模型来确定巴西某州的牛结核病控制行动

牲畜移动会在场所之间产生复杂的动态交互作用,这些交互作用可以表示,解释并用于流行病学目的。这些运动是生产链中非常重要的一部分,但也可能通过将感染的动物远距离转移而促进传染病的传播。可以使用社会网络分析(SNA)来表征牛的贸易模式,并确定高度关联的场所,这些场所可以作为移动网络的枢纽,可以对其进行有针对性的控制措施,以减少牛等传染病的传播结核病(TB)。这里,我们分析了巴西里奥格兰德州(RS)2016-2018年期间牛群活动和屠宰场监视的数据,以检测结核样病变(TLL),目的是:(i)表征牛群交易描述网络接触交易的静态完整,年度和每月快照,(ii)识别空间内和源于具有TLL的动物的房屋的接触网络的群集,以及(iii)评估针对性控制行动的潜力使用模拟农场内和农场间疾病传播的随机遗传种群疾病传播模型,降低RS牛的TB传播。我们在研究区域发现了房屋和动物的异质密度。对联系网络的分析显示,联系网络高度紧密(约94%),具有强烈的时间趋势,尤其是在5月和11月。TLL病例在空间和接触网络中显着聚集,这表明了局部(例如栅栏到栅栏)和运动介导的结核病传播的潜力。根据疾病传播模型,基于程度和中间度删除排名最高的7%关联农场可以使三年内受感染的农场总数减少50%以上。总之,牛群网络的特征表明,联系紧密的农场可能在结核病的传播中发挥作用,尽管靠近感染农场也被认为是拥有TLL的动物的危险因素。基于程度和中间性的监视和控制措施可能有助于打破RS中房屋之间的传输周期。TLL病例在空间和接触网络中显着聚集,这表明了局部(例如栅栏到栅栏)和运动介导的结核病传播的潜力。根据疾病传播模型,基于程度和中间度删除排名最高的7%关联农场可以使三年内受感染的农场总数减少50%以上。总之,牛群网络的特征表明,联系紧密的农场可能在结核病的传播中发挥作用,尽管靠近感染农场也被认为是拥有TLL的动物的危险因素。基于程度和中间性的监视和控制措施可能有助于打破RS中房屋之间的传输周期。TLL病例在空间和接触网络中显着聚集,这表明了局部(例如栅栏到栅栏)和运动介导的结核病传播的潜力。根据疾病传播模型,基于程度和中间度删除排名最高的7%关联农场可以使三年内受感染的农场总数减少50%以上。总之,牛群网络的特征表明,联系紧密的农场可能在结核病的传播中发挥作用,尽管靠近感染农场也被认为是拥有TLL的动物的危险因素。基于程度和中间性的监视和控制措施可能有助于打破RS中房屋之间的传输周期。栅栏到栅栏)和运动介导的结核病传播。根据疾病传播模型,基于程度和中间度删除排名最高的7%关联农场可以使三年内受感染的农场总数减少50%以上。总之,牛群网络的特征表明,联系紧密的农场可能在结核病的传播中发挥作用,尽管靠近感染农场也被认为是拥有TLL的动物的危险因素。基于程度和中间性的监视和控制措施可能有助于打破RS中房屋之间的传输周期。栅栏到栅栏)和运动介导的结核病传播。根据疾病传播模型,基于程度和中间度删除排名最高的7%关联农场可以使三年内受感染的农场总数减少50%以上。总之,牛群网络的特征表明,联系紧密的农场可能在结核病的传播中发挥作用,尽管靠近感染农场也被认为是拥有TLL的动物的危险因素。基于程度和中间性的监视和控制措施可能有助于打破RS中房屋之间的传输周期。牛群网络的特征表明,联系紧密的农场可能在结核病的传播中发挥作用,尽管靠近感染农场也被认为是拥有TLL的动物的危险因素。基于程度和中间性的监视和控制措施可能有助于打破RS中房屋之间的传输周期。牛群网络的特征表明,联系紧密的农场可能在结核病的传播中发挥作用,尽管与受感染的农场接近也被认为是拥有TLL动物的危险因素。基于程度和中间性的监视和控制措施可能有助于打破RS中房屋之间的传输周期。
更新日期:2021-01-22
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