Studies conducted in Bangladesh so far did not unequivocally identify the modus operandi of local farmers to perceive and experience the climate variability at a national scale. Hence, this study aims to decipher local farmer’s perception on climate variability for the last 10 years, by constructing climate variability index (CVI). Additionally, this study demystified the socio-economic determinants for influencing farmer perception regarding climate variability as well as its impact on their livelihoods. The study was designed on a cross-sectional data through a country-wide primary survey of 16,053 households who were largely dependent on agriculture. A weighted index was constructed for mapping the regional climate variability using model-builder programming in ArcGIS. Also, a multivariable probit model was employed to identify the factors influencing farmers' perception and resulting impact of climate variability on their livelihoods. According to local farmer’s perception, the CVI mapping identified that Bangladesh experienced variegated climatic variability since last 10 years. However, local farmer’s perception varied with different socio-economic factors like gender, education, farmer’s category, credit, monthly income and access to media. Moreover, landless, small and medium farm holders were more aware of the local climate variability and eventually, they also experienced the higher influence of climate variability on their livelihoods. Since an effective mapping of regional climate variability is a sine qua non to devise region specific policies, this study will facilitate the government to determine its priorities, formulate efficacious strategies and thereby help to adapt with future climate-induced risks and vulnerabilities.

中文翻译：

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气候变异指数的区域制图和确定影响孟加拉国农民感知的社会经济因素

迄今为止，在孟加拉国进行的研究并未明确确定当地农民在全国范围内感知和体验气候变化的方式。因此，本研究旨在通过构建气候变率指数（CVI）来解读当地农民对过去 10 年气候变率的看法。此外，这项研究揭开了影响农民对气候变化的看法及其对他们生计影响的社会经济决定因素的神秘面纱。该研究是根据横断面数据设计的，该数据是通过对 16,053 户主要依赖农业的家庭进行的全国性初步调查而设计的。使用 ArcGIS 中的模型构建器编程构建了一个加权指数，用于绘制区域气候变率。还，使用多变量概率模型来确定影响农民感知的因素以及气候变化对他们生计的影响。根据当地农民的看法，CVI 测绘确定孟加拉国自过去 10 年以来经历了多变的气候变化。然而，当地农民的看法因性别、教育程度、农民类别、信用、月收入和媒体使用等不同的社会经济因素而异。此外，无地、中小型农场主更了解当地的气候变异性，最终他们也经历了气候变异性对其生计的更大影响。由于区域气候变率的有效制图是制定区域特定政策的必要条件，