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Regional mapping of climate variability index and identifying socio-economic factors influencing farmer’s perception in Bangladesh

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Abstract

Studies conducted in Bangladesh so far did not unequivocally identify the modus operandi of local farmers to perceive and experience the climate variability at a national scale. Hence, this study aims to decipher local farmer’s perception on climate variability for the last 10 years, by constructing climate variability index (CVI). Additionally, this study demystified the socio-economic determinants for influencing farmer perception regarding climate variability as well as its impact on their livelihoods. The study was designed on a cross-sectional data through a country-wide primary survey of 16,053 households who were largely dependent on agriculture. A weighted index was constructed for mapping the regional climate variability using model-builder programming in ArcGIS. Also, a multivariable probit model was employed to identify the factors influencing farmers' perception and resulting impact of climate variability on their livelihoods. According to local farmer’s perception, the CVI mapping identified that Bangladesh experienced variegated climatic variability since last 10 years. However, local farmer’s perception varied with different socio-economic factors like gender, education, farmer’s category, credit, monthly income and access to media. Moreover, landless, small and medium farm holders were more aware of the local climate variability and eventually, they also experienced the higher influence of climate variability on their livelihoods. Since an effective mapping of regional climate variability is a sine qua non to devise region specific policies, this study will facilitate the government to determine its priorities, formulate efficacious strategies and thereby help to adapt with future climate-induced risks and vulnerabilities.

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Data Availability

Data are publicly available; however, interested researcher may contact the corresponding author rabbi@pik-potsdam.de. Data and materials may be shared with the qualified researchers after considering of all aspects.

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Acknowledgements

This research was solely accomplished under the doctoral funding provided by the International panel for climate change (IPCC).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A 31, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412, Potsdam, Germany

    Sifat E. Rabbi & Jürgen P. Kropp

  2. Change Initiative, Dhaka, Bangladesh

    Reza Shant

  3. Patuakhali Science and Technology University, Patuakhali, Bangladesh

    Sourav Karmakar

  4. Central Law College, Dhaka, Bangladesh

    Azhar Habib

  5. University of Potsdam, 14469, Potsdam, Germany

    Jürgen P. Kropp

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  1. Sifat E. Rabbi
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  2. Reza Shant
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  3. Sourav Karmakar
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Correspondence to Sifat E. Rabbi.

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Rabbi, S.E., Shant, R., Karmakar, S. et al. Regional mapping of climate variability index and identifying socio-economic factors influencing farmer’s perception in Bangladesh. Environ Dev Sustain 23, 11050–11066 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-01104-2

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