The impact of land use/land cover (LULC) change on the stream flow of the Shaya catchment was assessed by employing the MIKE SHE hydrological model. The digital elevation model, soil, LULC, climate, and stream flow data were used as model inputs. The LULC was analyzed from different years of satellite imageries using ERDAS IMAGINE software package and its accuracy was verified following the standard procedures. Trend and shift detection analysis were also conducted to study the effect of rainfall on stream flow using the Mann–Kendall (MK) and Pettit tests, respectively. The result showed that there is a significant expansion of settlement and agricultural area, while there was a decrease of bare land, forest, and bush land in the catchment. In contrary, rangeland was increased from the year 1987 to 2000 and then decreased from 2000 to 2015. The performance of the MIKE SHE hydrological model was very good both during model calibration and validation periods. It has been observed that rainfall did not show any significant trends and shifts, but the stream flow was increased significantly in the two decades. In this study, the effects of LULC change on the stream flow in the study area have been distinguished: the mean monthly stream flow was increased during the wet season, while it was decreased during the dry season. Therefore, we recommend concerned bodies to monitor and take appropriate control of the LULC changes, especially settlement and deforestation, before it makes acute problems of the hydrologic imbalance in the catchment.

通过使用MIKE SHE水文模型评估了土地利用/土地覆被（LULC）变化对沙雅流域径流的影响。数字高程模型，土壤，LULC，气候和水流数据被用作模型输入。使用ERDAS IMAGINE软件包对不同年份的卫星图像进行了LULC分析，并按照标准程序验证了其准确性。还分别进行了趋势和位移检测分析，以使用Mann-Kendall（MK）和Pettit检验研究降雨对水流的影响。结果表明，流域的定居点和农业面积显着扩大，流域的光秃秃的土地，森林和灌木丛土地减少了。相反，牧场从1987年到2000年增加，然后从2000年到2015年减少。在模型校准和验证期间，MIKE SHE水文模型的性能都非常好。已经观察到降雨没有显示任何明显的趋势和变化，但是在过去的二十年中，溪流显着增加。在这项研究中，已区分出LULC变化对研究区域内溪流的影响：在雨季，平均每月溪流增加，而在旱季则减少。因此，我们建议相关机构在造成流域水文失衡的严重问题之前，对LULC的变化（尤其是定居和砍伐森林）进行监测并采取适当的控制措施。已经观察到降雨没有显示任何明显的趋势和变化，但是在过去的二十年中，溪流显着增加。在这项研究中，已区分出LULC变化对研究区域内溪流的影响：在雨季，平均每月溪流增加，而在旱季则减少。因此，我们建议相关机构在造成流域水文失衡的严重问题之前，对LULC的变化（尤其是定居和砍伐森林）进行监测并采取适当的控制措施。已经观察到降雨没有显示任何明显的趋势和变化，但是在过去的二十年中，溪流显着增加。在这项研究中，已区分出LULC变化对研究区域内溪流的影响：在雨季，平均每月溪流增加，而在旱季则减少。因此，我们建议相关机构在造成流域水文失衡的严重问题之前，对LULC的变化（尤其是定居和砍伐森林）进行监测并采取适当的控制措施。平均月流量在雨季增加，而在旱季减少。因此，我们建议相关机构在造成流域水文失衡的严重问题之前，对LULC的变化（尤其是定居和砍伐森林）进行监测并采取适当的控制措施。平均月流量在雨季增加，而在旱季减少。因此，我们建议相关机构在造成流域水文失衡的严重问题之前，对LULC的变化（尤其是定居和砍伐森林）进行监测并采取适当的控制措施。