Water quality trading (WQT) programs aim to efficiently reduce pollution through market-based incentives. However, WQT performance is uneven; while several programs have found frequent use, many experience operational barriers and low trading activity. What factors are associated with WQT existence, prevalence, and operational stage? In this paper, we present and analyze the most complete database of WQT programs in the United States (147 programs/policies), detailing market designs, trading mechanisms, traded pollutants, and segmented geographies in 355 distinct markets. We use hurdle models (joint binary and count regressions) to evaluate markets in concert with demographic, political, and environmental covariates. We find that only one half of markets become operational, new market establishment has declined since 2013, and market existence and prevalence has nuanced relationships with local political ideology, urban infrastructure, waterway and waterbody extents, regulated environmental impacts, and historic waterway impairment. Our findings suggest opportunities for better projecting program need and targeting program funding.

中文翻译：

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预测美国水质交易市场的存在和盛行

水质贸易（WQT）计划旨在通过基于市场的激励措施有效地减少污染。但是，WQT性能参差不齐。尽管一些程序经常使用，但许多程序遇到操作障碍且交易活动低下。哪些因素与WQT的存在，患病率和运营阶段有关？在本文中，我们介绍并分析了美国最完整的WQT计划数据库（147个计划/政策），详细介绍了355个不同市场的市场设计，交易机制，交易的污染物以及细分的地理位置。我们使用跨栏模型（联合二元和计数回归）与人口，政治和环境协变量一起评估市场。我们发现，只有一半的市场开始运作，自2013年以来，新市场的建立已经下降，市场的存在和盛行与当地的政治意识形态，城市基础设施，水路和水体范围，受规管的环境影响以及历史性的水路损害之间有着微妙的关系。我们的发现为更好地预测计划需求和确定计划资金提供了机会。