The impact of climate change on droughts in the Lake Titicaca, Desaguadero River, and Lake Poopo basins (TDPS system) within the Altiplano region was evaluated by comparing projected 2034–2064 and observed 1984–2014 hydroclimate time series. The study used bias-corrected monthly climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. Meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts were analyzed from the standardized precipitation, standardized soil moisture, and standardized runoff indices, respectively, the latter two estimated from a hydrological model. Under scenarios of mean temperature increases up to 3 °C and spatially diverse precipitation changes, our results indicate that meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts will become more intense, frequent, and prolonged in most of the TDPS. A significant increase in the frequency of short-term agricultural and hydrological droughts (duration of 1–2 months) is also projected. The expected decline in annual rainfall and the larger evapotranspiration increase in the southern TDPS combine to yield larger projected rises in the frequency and intensity of agricultural and hydrological droughts in this region.

中文翻译：

---

的喀喀湖盆地气候变化对气象，水文和农业干旱的影响比较分析

通过比较2034年至2064年的预测值和1984年至2014年的水文气候时间序列，评估了Altiplano地区的喀喀湖，Desaguadero河和Poopo湖流域（TDPS系统）干旱对干旱的影响。这项研究使用了在代表性浓度路径8.5（RCP8.5）排放情景下，耦合模型比较项目（CMIP5）第五阶段的偏差校正后的每月气候预测。分别根据标准降水，标准土壤湿度和标准径流指数对气象，农业和水文干旱进行了分析，后两者是根据水文模型估算的。在平均温度升高到3°C和降水变化在空间上变化的情况下，我们的结果表明，气象，农业，在大多数TDPS中，水文干旱将变得更加强烈，频繁且持续。预计短期农业和水文干旱的频率（持续时间1-2个月）也将大大增加。南部TDPS的预期年降雨量下降和更大的蒸散量相结合，导致该地区农业和水文干旱的频率和强度的预计增加幅度更大。