Ecuador is likely to experience significant impacts associated with future changes in climate, but future projections for this region are challenging due to the complex topography and a wide range of climatic conditions. Here we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at 10 km horizontal resolution over a domain encompassing all of Ecuador to investigate future changes in temperature and precipitation for the middle of the twenty-first century (2041–2070) under a low (RCP4.5) and a high (RCP8.5) emission scenario. The model was validated by running 30-year control runs for the present climate, driven both by the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and the CCSM4 General Circulation Model. Bias and different correlation coefficient metrics were employed to compare the present-day model results with gridded (CRU TS v 4.03 and CHIRPS v 2.0) and in situ meteorological observations. Detailed hydrometeorological analyses over the Andes in both space and time domains show that WRF accurately simulates temperature variability. The precipitation seasonal cycle and interannual variability are also adequately simulated, but the model shows a general dry bias over the lowlands and a significant wet bias along the eastern Andean slopes. Results from future projections show that Ecuador could warm by an additional 1–2 K by the middle of the century compared with the end of the twentieth century. This warming is highly elevation-dependent, subjecting the highest peaks of the Andes to the strongest future warming. Bias-corrected future precipitation changes document a drying trend along coastal areas in RCP4.5 and increased future precipitation along the eastern Andean slopes in both scenarios.

厄瓜多尔可能会受到与未来气候变化有关的重大影响，但由于地形复杂且气候条件广泛，该地区的未来预测面临挑战。在这里，我们使用天气研究和预报（WRF）模型在整个厄瓜多尔的一个区域上以10 km的水平分辨率运行，以调查二十一世纪中叶（2041-2070）在低气压下未来温度和降水的变化（RCP4.5）和高（RCP8.5）排放情景。该模型通过在气候预测系统再分析（CFSR）和CCSM4通用环流模型的驱动下针对当前气候运行30年的控制运行而得到验证。使用偏差和不同的相关系数度量来比较当前模型结果与网格（CRU TS v 4。03和CHIRPS v 2.0）和原位气象观测。在安第斯山脉的时空范围内进行的详细水文气象分析表明，WRF可以准确地模拟温度变化。降水季节周期和年际变化也得到了充分模拟，但该模型显示了低地的一般干旱偏向和安第斯山东坡明显的湿偏向。未来预测的结果表明，与20世纪末相比，到本世纪中叶，厄瓜多尔可能再增加1-2K。这种变暖高度依赖于海拔，使安第斯山脉的最高峰遭受未来最强烈的变暖。经偏置校正的未来降水变化记录了RCP4沿海地区的干旱趋势。