Abstract
Ecuador is likely to experience significant impacts associated with future changes in climate, but future projections for this region are challenging due to the complex topography and a wide range of climatic conditions. Here we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at 10 km horizontal resolution over a domain encompassing all of Ecuador to investigate future changes in temperature and precipitation for the middle of the twenty-first century (2041–2070) under a low (RCP4.5) and a high (RCP8.5) emission scenario. The model was validated by running 30-year control runs for the present climate, driven both by the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and the CCSM4 General Circulation Model. Bias and different correlation coefficient metrics were employed to compare the present-day model results with gridded (CRU TS v 4.03 and CHIRPS v 2.0) and in situ meteorological observations. Detailed hydrometeorological analyses over the Andes in both space and time domains show that WRF accurately simulates temperature variability. The precipitation seasonal cycle and interannual variability are also adequately simulated, but the model shows a general dry bias over the lowlands and a significant wet bias along the eastern Andean slopes. Results from future projections show that Ecuador could warm by an additional 1–2 K by the middle of the century compared with the end of the twentieth century. This warming is highly elevation-dependent, subjecting the highest peaks of the Andes to the strongest future warming. Bias-corrected future precipitation changes document a drying trend along coastal areas in RCP4.5 and increased future precipitation along the eastern Andean slopes in both scenarios.
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Data availability
WRF data used in this study will be made available in a public domain site upon acceptance of the manuscript. All other data sets used in this study are publicly available.
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Acknowledgments
We acknowledge the Instituto Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Ecuador (INAMHI) for providing the historical data from their weather station network. We would like to acknowledge high-performance computing support provided by NCAR’s Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, sponsored by the National Science Foundation. CFSR-WRF and CCSM4-WRF were run using their Yellowstone high performance computing system (ark:/85065/d7wd3xhc). We also would like to acknowledge the data access and computing support provided by the NCAR CMIP Analysis Platform (doi:10.5065/D60R9MSP).
Funding
This research was sponsored by the U.S. State Department (award S-LMAQM-11-GR-0860) and the U.S. National Science Foundation (award OISE-1743738).
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OC ran the WRF simulations. MV and OC designed the study, analyzed, and interpreted the data and wrote the paper.
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Chimborazo, O., Vuille, M. Present-day climate and projected future temperature and precipitation changes in Ecuador. Theor Appl Climatol 143, 1581–1597 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03483-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03483-y