For decades, Americans have generally been moving away from the Northeast and the Midwest toward the South and West. Mountainous and desert areas in the West and Southwest have been especially popular internal migration destinations. However, these same areas are particularly susceptible to the increasing impacts of climate change on extreme heat and wildfire. This paper investigates relationships between disaster-level fire events and extreme heat on county-level migration in the USA using annual panel data for the years 1990–2015. Are wildfire and extreme heat associated with changes in migration patterns? And, are relationships between such “disamenities” and migration stronger in counties with closer ties to environmental amenities? Fixed effects and random effects regression analysis show that both experiencing a disaster-level wildfire and extreme heat in the prior year were associated with reduced migration. Relationships are stronger in counties rich in natural amenities and outdoor recreation, suggesting that in places known for their environmental amenities, shifts toward environmental disamenities may be particularly impactful.

中文翻译：

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便利设施还是缺陷？估计极端高温和野火对美国国内移民的影响

几十年来，美国人普遍从东北部和中西部向南部和西部转移。西部和西南部的山区和沙漠地区一直是特别受欢迎的国内迁徙目的地。然而，这些相同的地区特别容易受到气候变化对极端高温和野火的日益增加的影响。本文使用 1990-2015 年的年度面板数据调查了美国县级移民中灾害级火灾事件与极端高温之间的关系。野火和极端高温是否与迁徙模式的变化有关？和，在与环境便利设施联系更紧密的县，这种“障碍”与移民之间的关系是否更牢固？固定效应和随机效应回归分析表明，前一年经历了灾难级别的野火和极端高温都与迁移减少有关。在自然便利设施和户外休闲设施丰富的县，这种关系更为紧密，这表明在以环境便利而闻名的地方，向环境不便利的转变可能特别具有影响力。