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Amenities or disamenities? Estimating the impacts of extreme heat and wildfire on domestic US migration

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Abstract

For decades, Americans have generally been moving away from the Northeast and the Midwest toward the South and West. Mountainous and desert areas in the West and Southwest have been especially popular internal migration destinations. However, these same areas are particularly susceptible to the increasing impacts of climate change on extreme heat and wildfire. This paper investigates relationships between disaster-level fire events and extreme heat on county-level migration in the USA using annual panel data for the years 1990–2015. Are wildfire and extreme heat associated with changes in migration patterns? And, are relationships between such “disamenities” and migration stronger in counties with closer ties to environmental amenities? Fixed effects and random effects regression analysis show that both experiencing a disaster-level wildfire and extreme heat in the prior year were associated with reduced migration. Relationships are stronger in counties rich in natural amenities and outdoor recreation, suggesting that in places known for their environmental amenities, shifts toward environmental disamenities may be particularly impactful.

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Acknowledgments

Special thanks to Lori Hunter and the other conference participants for comments and suggestions that helped to improve this manuscript. We would also like to thank Roland Ofori for his help with data organization and consultation on economic data, Randy Swaty at The Nature Conservancy for consultation on measuring fire and on theorizing relationships between fire and migration, and the staff at the Western Regional Climate Center who aggregated PRISM data on extreme heat to county-level data for this analysis.

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Winkler, R.L., Rouleau, M.D. Amenities or disamenities? Estimating the impacts of extreme heat and wildfire on domestic US migration. Popul Environ 42, 622–648 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-020-00364-4

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