The growing electricity demand impels the expansion of generation capacity. For an effective and detailed planning, it is vital to know the supply capacity and the growth potential of a power plant technology. For the growth of a power generation technology, the electricity generated from it needs reinvestment for the construction of newer power plants, other than just meeting the demand. This paper proposes a framework employing dynamic energy analysis to examine the capacity expansion, growth potential and energy dynamics of six different technologies (solar PV, wind, hydro, nuclear, coal and gas). The power plant characteristics include lifetime, construction time, energy payback time and energy reinvestment factor. Energy payback time, relative to the lifetime of a power plant, is the primary constraint in capacity expansion. We analyze energy reinvestment strategies, affecting the growth rate, and determine its optimal value. The solar PV power plant has the least maximum growth potential of 15%, while gas power plant has the highest maximum growth potential of 124%. Relationships are developed to find the minimum time frame required to follow a self-sustainable path with optimal reinvestment for any technology. A case study is presented to reach the global demand capacity target for the year 2030 following a low-carbon-emission path.

Graphical abstract

中文翻译：

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使用动态能量分析的发电厂产能扩展

电力需求的增长促使发电量的扩大。为了进行有效而详细的计划，至关重要的是要了解电厂技术的供应能力和增长潜力。随着发电技术的发展，其发电量不仅需要满足需求，还需要再投资用于建设新的发电厂。本文提出了一个使用动态能源分析的框架，以研究六种不同技术（太阳能光伏，风能，水能，核能，煤炭和天然气）的容量扩展，增长潜力和能源动态。电厂的特性包括寿命，建设时间，能源回收时间和能源再投资因子。相对于电厂的寿命，能源回收时间是容量扩展的主要限制因素。我们分析能源再投资策略，影响增长率，并确定其最佳价值。太阳能光伏电站的最大增长潜力为15％，而天然气电站的最大增长潜力为124％。建立关系以找到遵循自我可持续的道路以及对任何技术进行最佳再投资所需的最短时间框架。提出了一个案例研究，以遵循低碳排放之路实现2030年的全球需求能力目标。建立关系以找到遵循自我可持续的道路以及对任何技术进行最佳再投资所需的最短时间框架。提出了一个案例研究，以遵循低碳排放之路实现2030年的全球需求能力目标。建立关系以找到遵循自我可持续的道路以及对任何技术进行最佳再投资所需的最短时间框架。提出了一个案例研究，以遵循低碳排放之路实现2030年的全球需求能力目标。

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