Abstract

Studies of water balance and variations of water regime of rivers in the Don Basin have shown a steady trend toward a decrease in spring flood volumes and an increase in runoff volume in winter since the mid-1980s. More frequent thaws have resulted in that snowmelt runoff formation can be seen almost throughout winter. A decrease in soil moisture content in the late October along with a decrease in the maximal freezing depth in the major portion of the basin increases water losses during thaws and at the early stages of spring flood. At a considerable decrease in the water equivalent of snow cover along with an appreciable increase in water losses, spring flood will not occur in some years. Therefore, changes in the climate and anthropogenic load considerably reduce the reliability of relationships developed in the XX century and used to forecast the spring inflow into the Tsymlyansk Reservoir.

中文翻译：

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预测当前气候条件下春季洪水期间入尖沙姆斯克水库的水流入量：问题和可重复性

摘要

自1980年代中期以来，对唐盆地的水平衡和河流水情变化的研究表明，春季洪水量减少，冬季径流量增加的趋势稳定。更频繁的解冻导致几乎整个冬季都可以看到融雪径流的形成。10月下旬土壤水分含量的下降，以及盆地大部分地区最大冻结深度的下降，都增加了融雪期间和春季洪水初期的水分流失。随着积雪的水当量显着下降，同时水损失显着增加，在某些年份将不会发生春季洪水。因此，