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Forecasting Water Inflow into the Tsimlyansk Reservoir during Spring Flood under Current Climate Conditions: Problems and Reproducibility

  • WATER RESOURCES AND THE REGIME OF WATER BODIES
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Abstract

Studies of water balance and variations of water regime of rivers in the Don Basin have shown a steady trend toward a decrease in spring flood volumes and an increase in runoff volume in winter since the mid-1980s. More frequent thaws have resulted in that snowmelt runoff formation can be seen almost throughout winter. A decrease in soil moisture content in the late October along with a decrease in the maximal freezing depth in the major portion of the basin increases water losses during thaws and at the early stages of spring flood. At a considerable decrease in the water equivalent of snow cover along with an appreciable increase in water losses, spring flood will not occur in some years. Therefore, changes in the climate and anthropogenic load considerably reduce the reliability of relationships developed in the XX century and used to forecast the spring inflow into the Tsymlyansk Reservoir.

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Funding

This study was carried out under Governmental Contract (no. 78/2-NIR/FTsP-2018 for the implementation of researches between Moscow State University and FRC Agroekologii, Russian Academy of Sciences, under Federal Target-Oriented Program “Development of Water-Management Complex of the Russian Federation in 2012–2020” on the subject “Long-Term Forecast of Variations of Water Resources with the Aim to Ensure Sustainable Functioning of Water Management Complex in the Don River Basin”). The development of the methodological approaches and algorithms used in this study is supported by the Russian Science Foundation, project no. 19-77-10 032.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Moscow State University, 119991, Moscow, Russia

    N. A. Varentsova, M. B. Kireeva, N. L. Frolova, M. A. Kharlamov, V. P. Ilich & A. A. Sazonov

  2. Central Department of Hydrometeorological Service, 127055, Moscow, Russia

    N. A. Varentsova

  3. Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119333, Moscow, Russia

    M. A. Kharlamov

Authors
  1. N. A. Varentsova
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  2. M. B. Kireeva
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  3. N. L. Frolova
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  4. M. A. Kharlamov
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  5. V. P. Ilich
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  6. A. A. Sazonov
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Correspondence to N. A. Varentsova.

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Translated by G. Krichevets

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Varentsova, N.A., Kireeva, M.B., Frolova, N.L. et al. Forecasting Water Inflow into the Tsimlyansk Reservoir during Spring Flood under Current Climate Conditions: Problems and Reproducibility. Water Resour 47, 953–967 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807820060159

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807820060159

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