In this paper, we analyze the impact of immigration on Greek politics over the 2004–2012 period, exploiting panel data on 51 Greek regional units. We account for the potential endogenous clustering of migrants into more “tolerant” regions by using a shift-share-imputed instrument, based on their allocation in 1991. Overall, our results are consistent with the idea that immigration is positively associated with the vote share of extreme-right parties, though the effects appear to be stronger during the Greek fiscal crisis. This finding appears to be robust to alternative controls, sample restrictions and different estimation methods. We do not find supportive evidence for the conjecture that natives “vote with their feet,” i.e., move away from regions with high immigrant concentrations. We also find that the political success of the far-right comes at the expense of “Leftist” parties, thereby rejecting the idea that migration divides the society into different camps. Importantly, our analysis suggests that labor market concerns play a significant role in shaping native attitudes toward immigration.

中文翻译：

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移民和极右投票：来自希腊的证据

在本文中，我们利用51个希腊区域单位的面板数据，分析了移民对2004-2012年期间希腊政治的影响。我们根据1991年的份额分配方法，通过使用份额分配推算工具来解释可能的内源性聚集到更多“宽容”区域的移民。总体而言，我们的结果与以下观点一致：移民与投票份额呈正相关极端右派政党的影响，尽管在希腊财政危机期间影响似乎更大。这一发现似乎对替代控制，样品限制和不同的估计方法具有鲁棒性。对于这种推测，即土著人“用脚投票”，即远离移民集中地区，我们没有找到支持的证据。我们还发现，极右翼的政治成功是以“左派”政党为代价的，从而拒绝了移民将社会分为不同阵营的观点。重要的是，我们的分析表明，劳动力市场问题在塑造本地人对移民的态度方面起着重要作用。