This paper develops a graphical tool – the uncertainty triangle – that allows for testing whether choices under uncertainty obey the generalized axiom of revealed preference (GARP). We find that more than 95% of subjects made choices that can be rationalized by the maximization of a well-behaved utility function. The uncertainty triangle also makes it straightforward to characterize heterogeneity in attitudes towards uncertainty. To accomplish this we propose a one-parameter extension of Expected Utility in which uncertainty attitude is everywhere constant in the triangle. Experimental data indicate that about 60% of participants made choices consistent with the model and, within this group, 48% were uncertainty averse, 22% uncertainty seeking, and 30% uncertainty neutral. The remaining 40% of participants appear to hold variable uncertainty attitudes. A model that can accommodate this variability is proposed and calibrated.

中文翻译：

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不确定性三角形–发现不确定性的异质性

本文开发了一种图形工具-不确定性三角形-可以测试不确定性下的选择是否遵循显性偏好的广义公理（GARP）。我们发现，超过95％的受测者做出了可以通过最大化表现良好的效用函数来合理化的选择。不确定性三角形还使表征不确定性态度的异质性变得容易。为此，我们提出了“期望效用”的单参数扩展，其中不确定性态度在三角形中到处都是恒定的。实验数据表明，约有60％的参与者做出了与模型一致的选择，并且在该组中，有48％的人反对不确定性，22％的不确定性寻求者和30％的中性不确定性。其余40％的参与者似乎持有不确定的态度。提出并校准了可以适应这种可变性的模型。