The study intends to explain the convergence of the UCR and NCVS data series (1973–2008). Hypothesized explanatory variables include increased police productivity, change in people’s attitudes toward crime and the police, demographic changes, changes in the measurements used in data collections, and the advancement of telecommunication tools. The time series models with relevant predictor variables are estimated to explain the convergence of the two crime data series in five different crime categories. The results show that an increase in the total number of employees in the police, changes in measurements, especially the methodological changes adopted in the victimization survey in 1992, and changing attitudes toward crime and the police affect the relationship between the two crime data series and may have helped the convergence of the two. We argue that (1) the convergence of the two crime data series is not a mere convergence of methodological inadequacies resulting from the declining quality of the victimization survey and (2) all the predictor variables only partially affect the convergence of the two crime data series. Methodological limitations of this study are also addressed.

中文翻译：

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解释 UCR-NCVS 收敛：时间序列分析

该研究旨在解释 UCR 和 NCVS 数据系列（1973-2008）的收敛性。假设的解释变量包括警察生产力的提高、人们对犯罪和警察的态度的变化、人口结构的变化、数据收集中使用的测量方法的变化以及电信工具的进步。估计具有相关预测变量的时间序列模型可以解释五个不同犯罪类别中两个犯罪数据系列的收敛性。结果表明，警察总人数的增加、测量方法的变化，特别是 1992 年受害调查所采用的方法变化，以及对犯罪和警察的态度的变化，影响了两个犯罪数据系列和可能有助于两者的融合。我们认为 (1) 两个犯罪数据系列的收敛不仅仅是由于受害调查质量下降而导致的方法学不足之处的收敛，以及 (2) 所有预测变量仅部分影响两个犯罪数据系列的收敛. 本研究的方法学局限性也得到了解决。