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Visual and statistical inference of hourly and sub-hourly extreme rainfall trends Central Anatolia, Turkey case
Acta Geophysica ( IF 2.0 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-23 , DOI: 10.1007/s11600-020-00512-2
Sertac Oruc

The analysis of long-term rainfall data in a changing climate is important because it has many sectoral applications such as agriculture, infrastructure, and water resources management. Statistical analyses of the annual maximum rainfall data were performed using the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test to evaluate the annual maximum trend characteristics of the rainfall time series, the innovative trend analysis (ITA) method to detect categorial trends, and the ITA indicator to digitize the ITA results. Storm durations of 5, 10, 15, 30 min and 1, 3, 6, 24 h annual maximum rainfall series at 13 central stations in Central Anatolia, Turkey were used. According to the MK test results, there were no significant upward or downward monotonic trend at four stations, whereas the remaining nine stations showed a significant upward or downward monotonic trend. Significant negative and positive trends were identified for the sub-hourly and hourly rainfall, whereas significant positive trends were detected for hourly storm durations. Significant trend results were mostly consistent with the general ITA results. The sub-hourly storm duration data were more consistent in terms of significant trends. Conversely, when evaluated according to low, medium, and high data values in the rainfall series (categories), the high data values showed different trends. Although no trend was detected with the MK test, the ITA results showed an upward or downward trend for 25 rainfall series. 29 of 30 significant MK test results were consistent with the ITA indicator results, compared with 24 of 30 results of the visually inspected ITA results.



中文翻译:

每小时和每小时以下极端降雨趋势的可视化和统计推断,土耳其安那托利亚中部案例

在不断变化的气候中分析长期降雨数据非常重要,因为它具有许多行业应用,例如农业,基础设施和水资源管理。使用Mann-Kendall(MK)趋势测试对年度最大降雨量数据进行统计分析,以评估降雨时间序列的年度最大趋势特征,用于检测类别趋势的创新趋势分析(ITA)方法以及ITA指标数字化ITA结果。在土耳其中部安那托利亚的13个中央气象站使用的暴风雨持续时间分别为5、10、15、30分钟和1、3、6、24小时每年的最大降雨序列。根据MK测试结果,四个站点没有明显的向上或向下单调趋势,而其余九个站点则显示出明显的向上或向下单调趋势。在每小时和每小时以下的降雨中,发现了显着的负趋势和正趋势,而在每小时的暴雨持续时间内,发现了显着的正趋势。重要的趋势结果大部分与ITA的总体结果一致。就重大趋势而言,亚小时风暴持续时间数据更加一致。相反,根据降雨序列(类别)中的低,中和高数据值进行评估时,高数据值显示出不同的趋势。尽管用MK测试未检测到任何趋势,但ITA结果显示25个降雨序列呈上升或下降趋势。30个重要的MK测试结果中有29个与ITA指标结果一致,而目测ITA结果的30个结果中有24个结果与ITA指标结果一致。

更新日期:2020-11-23
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