Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Visual and statistical inference of hourly and sub-hourly extreme rainfall trends Central Anatolia, Turkey case

  • Research Article - Hydrology
  • Published:
Acta Geophysica Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The analysis of long-term rainfall data in a changing climate is important because it has many sectoral applications such as agriculture, infrastructure, and water resources management. Statistical analyses of the annual maximum rainfall data were performed using the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test to evaluate the annual maximum trend characteristics of the rainfall time series, the innovative trend analysis (ITA) method to detect categorial trends, and the ITA indicator to digitize the ITA results. Storm durations of 5, 10, 15, 30 min and 1, 3, 6, 24 h annual maximum rainfall series at 13 central stations in Central Anatolia, Turkey were used. According to the MK test results, there were no significant upward or downward monotonic trend at four stations, whereas the remaining nine stations showed a significant upward or downward monotonic trend. Significant negative and positive trends were identified for the sub-hourly and hourly rainfall, whereas significant positive trends were detected for hourly storm durations. Significant trend results were mostly consistent with the general ITA results. The sub-hourly storm duration data were more consistent in terms of significant trends. Conversely, when evaluated according to low, medium, and high data values in the rainfall series (categories), the high data values showed different trends. Although no trend was detected with the MK test, the ITA results showed an upward or downward trend for 25 rainfall series. 29 of 30 significant MK test results were consistent with the ITA indicator results, compared with 24 of 30 results of the visually inspected ITA results.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abbasnia M, Toros H (2020) Trend analysis of weather extremes across the coastal and non-coastal areas (case study: Turkey). J Earth SystSci 129:95. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-020-1359-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ahmad I, Tang D, Wang T, Wang M, Wagan B (2015) Precipitation trends over time using Mann-Kendall and spearmans rho tests in swat river basin, Pakistan. AdvMeteorol 2015:1–15. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/431860

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alashan S (2020) Combination of modified Mann-Kendall method and Şen innovative trend analysis. Eng Rep 2:e12131. https://doi.org/10.1002/eng2.12131

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alemu MM, Bawoke GT (2019) Analysis of spatial variability and temporal trends of rainfall in Amhara region, Ethiopia. J Water Clim Change. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2019.084

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ali R, Kuriqi A, Abubaker S, Kisi O (2019) Long-Term Trends and Seasonality Detection term trends and seasonality detection of the Observed Flow in Yangtze River Using observed flow in yangtze river using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s innovative trend method. Water 11:1855

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alifujiang Y, Abuduwaili J, Maihemuti B, Emin B, Groll M (2020) Innovative trend analysis of precipitation in the lake issyk-kul basin Kyrgyzstan. Atmospere 11:332

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Altın T, Barak B, Altın B (2012) Change in precipitation and temperature amounts over three decades in Central Anatolia, Turkey. AtmosClimSci 2:107–125. https://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2012.21013

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ay M, Karaca Ö, Yıldız A (2018) Comparison of Mann-Kendall and Sen’s innovative trend tests on measured monthly flows series of some streams in Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Erciyes Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Fen Bilimleri Dergisi , 34:78–86 . Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/erciyesfen/issue/37078/406818

  • Ay M, Kisi O (2015) Investigation of trend analysis of monthly total precipitation by an innovative method. TheorApplClimatol 120:617–629

    Google Scholar 

  • Bacanli ÜG, Dikbaş F, Baran T (2011) Meteorological drought analysis case study: Central Anatolia. Desalination Water Treat 26(1–3):14–23. https://doi.org/10.5004/dwt.2011.2105

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bozoglu M, Başer U, AlhasEroglu N, KılıcTopuz B (2019) Impacts of climate change on Turkish agriculture. J Int Environ Appl Sci 14:97–103

    Google Scholar 

  • Caloiero T (2018) SPI trend analysis of New Zealand applying the ITA technique. Geosciences 8:101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caloiero T, Aristodemo F, Algieri Ferraro D (2019) Trend analysis of significant wave height and energy period in southern Italy. TheorApplClimatol 138:917–930. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02879-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caloiero T, Coscarelli R, Ferrari E (2020) Assessment of seasonal and annual rainfall trend in Calabria (southern Italy) with the ITA method. J Hydroinform. https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2019.138

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cattani E, Merino A, Guijarro JA, Levizzani V (2018) East Africa rainfall trends and variability 1983–2015 using three long-term satellite products. Remote Sens 10:1–26. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10060931

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen Y, Guan Y, Shao G, Zhang D (2016) Investigating trends in streamflow and precipitation in huangfuchuan basin with wavelet analysis and the Mann-Kendall test. Water 8(3):77. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8030077

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cheng L, AghaKouchak A (2014) Nonstationary precipitation intensity-duration-frequency curves for infrastructure design in a changing climate. Sci Rep 4:7093. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep07093

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cogato A, Meggio F, De Antoni M, Marinello MF (2019) Extreme weather events in agriculture: a systematic review. Sustainability 11:2547

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Çiçek I, Duman N (2015) Seasonal and annual precipitation trends inTurkey. Carpath J Earth Environ Sci 10:77–84

    Google Scholar 

  • Dabanlı İ, Şen Z, Yeleğen MÖ, Şişman E, Selek V, Güçlü YS (2016) Trend assessment by the innovative-Şen method. Water ResourManag 30:5193–5203

    Google Scholar 

  • Dellal Đ, McCarl BA, Butt T (2011) The economic assessment of climate change on Turkish agriculture. J Environ ProtEcol 12:376–385

    Google Scholar 

  • Demir V, Kisi O. Comparison of Mann-Kendall and innovative trend method (Şen trend) for monthly totalprecipitation (Middle Black Sea Region, Turkey). In proceedings of the conference 3rd ınternational balkansconference on challenges of civil engineering, 3-BCCCE, Tirana, Albania, 19–21 May 2016

  • Dorjsuren B, Yan D, Wang H, Chonokhuu S, Enkhbold A, Yiran X, Girma A, Gedefaw M, Abiyu A (2018) Observed trends of climate and river discharge in mongolia’sselenga sub-basin of the lake Baikal basin. Water 10:1436

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dudu H, Çakmak EH (2018) Climate change and agriculture: an integrated approach to evaluate economy-wide effects for Turkey. Clim Dev 10:275–288. https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2017.1372259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gedefaw M, Yan D, Wang H, Qin T, Girma A, Abiyu A, Batsuren D (2018) Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall variability in Amhara Regional State. Ethiop Atmos 9:326

    Google Scholar 

  • Gilbert RO (1987) Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring. Wiley, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Güçlü YS (2018) Multiple Şen-innovative trend analyses and partial Mann-Kendall test. J Hydrol 566:685–704

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Güçlü YS, Şişman E, Dabanlı İ (2020) Innovative triangular trend analysis. Arab J Geosci 13:1–8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Güçlü Y, Şişman E, Yeleğen M (2018) Climate change and FID curves. J Flood Risk Manage 11:S403–S418. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12229

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haktanir T, Citakoglu H (2014) Trend, independence, stationarity, and homogeneity tests on maximum rainfall series of standard durations recorded in Turkey. J HydrolEng 19:9. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000973

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu M, Sayama T, Try S, Takara K, Tanaka K (2019) Trend analysis of hydroclimatic variables in the Kamo River Basin. Japan Water 11:1782

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Joshi GS, Makhasana P (2020) Assessment of seasonal climate transference and regional influential linkages to land cover–Investigation in a river basin. J Atmos Solar TerrPhys 199:105209

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods, 4th edn. Charles Griffin, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Kisi Ö, Santos CAG, Silva RM, Zounemat-Kermani M (2018) Trend analysis of monthly streamflows using Şen’s innovative trend method. Geofizika 35:53–68

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Longobardi A, Villani P (2010) Trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall time series in the Mediterranean area. Int J Climatol 30:1538–1546

    Google Scholar 

  • Malik A, Kumar A, Guhathakurta P, Kisi O (2019) Spatial-temporal trend analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall (1966–2015) using innovative trend analysis method with significance test. Arab J Geosci 12:328

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mall RK, Gupta A, Singh R, Singh RS, Rathore LS (2006) Water resources and climate change: an Indian perspective. CurrSci 90:1610–1626

    Google Scholar 

  • Mann HB (1945) Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:163–171

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Onyutha C, Tabari H, Taye MT, Nyandwaro GN, Willems P (2015) Analyses of rainfall trends in the Nile River basin. J Hydro Environ Res 13:36–51

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Palmer MA, ReidyLiermann CA, Nilsson C, Flörke M, Alcamo J, Lake PS, Bond N (2008) Climate change and the world’s river basins: anticipating management options. Front Ecol Environ 6:81–89. https://doi.org/10.1890/060148

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Patakamuri SK (2019) Trendchange: innovative trend analysis and time-series change point analysis. Vienna, Austria, The R project for Statistical Computing

    Google Scholar 

  • Pohlert T (2020) Trend: Non-Parametric Trend Tests and Change-Point Detection. R Package Version 1.1.2 https://CRAN.Rproject.org/package=trend

  • Saplıoğlu K, Kilit M, Yavuz BK (2014) Trend analysis of streams in the Western Mediterranean Basin of Turkey. Fresenius Environ Bull 23:1–12

    Google Scholar 

  • Serinaldi F, Kilsby CG (2015) StationarityIs undead: uncertainty dominates the distribution of extremes. Adv Water Resour 77:17–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2014.12.013

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Serinaldi F, Chebana F, Kilsby CG (2020) Dissecting innovative trend analysis. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 34:733–754. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-020-01797-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shawul AA, Chakma S (2020) Trend of extreme precipitation indices and analysis of long-term climate variability in the Upper Awash basin, Ethiopia. TheorApplClimatol 140:635–652. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03112-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şen Z (2012) Innovative trend analysis methodology. J HydrolEng 17:1042–1046

    Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE (2011) Changes in precipitation with climate change. Clim Res 47:123–138

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu H, Qian H (2017) Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall and extreme values in Shaanxi, China, since the 1950s. Int J Climatol 37:2582–2592

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yagbasan O, Demir V, Yazicigil H (2020) Trend Analyses of meteorological variables and lake levels for two shallow lakes in Central Turkey. Water 12:414

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yilmaz B (2019) Analysis of hydrological drought trends in the gap region (Southeastern Turkey) by Mann-Kendall test and innovative Şen method. ApplEcol Environ Res 17:3325–3342

    Google Scholar 

  • Yilmaz AG, Perera BJC (2014) Extreme rainfall non-stationarity investigation and intensity-frequency-duration relationship. J HydrolEng 19:1160–1172. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000878

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yucel I, Güventürk A, Sen OL (2015) Climate change impacts on snowmelt runoff for mountainous transboundary basins in eastern Turkey. Int J Climatol 35:215–228. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3974

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Zwiers F, Li G, Wan H, Cannon AJ (2017) Complexity in estimating past and future extreme short-duration rainfall. Nature Geosci 10:255–259. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2911

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Funding

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Ahi Evran University, Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Department of Civil Engineering, 40100, Kırşehir, Turkey

    Sertac Oruc

Authors
  1. Sertac Oruc
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sertac Oruc.

Ethics declarations

Conflicts of interest

The author declares no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Communicated by Michael Nones, Ph.D. (CO-EDITOR-IN-CHIEF)/Mohammad Valipour (ASSOCIATE EDITOR).

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary file4 (zip 1847 kb)

Supplementary file4 (XLSX 19 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Oruc, S. Visual and statistical inference of hourly and sub-hourly extreme rainfall trends Central Anatolia, Turkey case. Acta Geophys. 69, 199–216 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-020-00512-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-020-00512-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation