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Deciphering role of inter and intracity human dispersal on epidemic spread via coupled reaction-diffusion models
Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computing ( IF 2.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-18 , DOI: 10.1007/s12190-020-01450-4
M. A. Aziz-Alaoui , Parimita Roy

Human mobility has been significantly influencing public health since time immemorial. A susceptible-infected-deceased epidemic reaction diffusion network model using asymptotic transmission rate is proposed to portray the spatial spread of the epidemic among two cities due to population dispersion. Qualitative behaviour including global attractor and persistence property are obtained. We also study asymptotic behaviour of the whole network with the help of asymptotic behaviour at individual cities. The epidemic model shows up two equilibria, (i) the disease-free, and (ii) unique endemic equilibria. An expression that can be used to calculate the basic reproduction number for heterogeneous environment, for the entire network is obtained. We use graph theory to analyze the global stability of our diffusive two-city model. We also performed bifurcation analysis and discovered that endemic equilibrium changes stability via Hopf bifurcations. A significant reduction in the number of infectives were observed when proper migration rate is maintained between the cities. Numerical results are provided to illuminate and clarify theoretical findings. Simulation experiments for two-dimensional spatial models show that infectious populations will increase if contact heterogeneity is increased, but it will decline if infective populations perform more local random movement. We observe that infection risk may be understated if the parameters used to estimate the basic reproduction number remains unchanged through space or time.



中文翻译:

通过耦合反应扩散模型,城际和城际人口传播对流行病传播的破译作用

自远古时代以来,人类的流动性就已经极大地影响着公共健康。提出了一种利用渐近传播率的易感染,已减少的流行病反应扩散网络模型,以刻画两个城市之间由于人口分散而造成的流行病的空间分布。获得了包括整体吸引子和持久性在内的定性行为。我们还借助各个城市的渐近行为来研究整个网络的渐近行为。该流行病模型显示出两个平衡点,(i)无病,和(ii)独特的地方性平衡。获得可用于计算整个网络的异构环境的基本再现次数的表达式。我们使用图论来分析我们的扩散两城市模型的全局稳定性。我们还进行了分叉分析,发现地方性均衡通过Hopf分叉改变了稳定性。当城市之间保持适当的迁移率时,可以观察到传染病数量大大减少。提供数值结果以阐明和阐明理论发现。二维空间模型的仿真实验表明,如果接触异质性增加,传染性种群将会增加,但是如果传染性种群执行更多的局部随机运动,则传染性种群将会减少。我们观察到,如果用于估计基本繁殖数量的参数在空间或时间上保持不变,则感染风险可能被低估了。当城市之间保持适当的迁移率时,可以观察到传染病数量大大减少。提供数值结果以阐明和阐明理论发现。二维空间模型的仿真实验表明,如果接触异质性增加,传染性种群将会增加,但是如果传染性种群执行更多的局部随机运动,则传染性种群将会减少。我们观察到,如果用于估计基本繁殖数量的参数在空间或时间上保持不变,则感染风险可能被低估了。当城市之间保持适当的迁移率时,可以观察到传染病数量大大减少。提供数值结果以阐明和阐明理论发现。二维空间模型的仿真实验表明,如果接触异质性增加,传染性种群将会增加,但是如果传染性种群执行更多的局部随机运动,则传染性种群将会减少。我们观察到,如果用于估计基本繁殖数量的参数在空间或时间上保持不变,则感染风险可能被低估了。二维空间模型的仿真实验表明,如果接触异质性增加,传染性种群将会增加,但是如果传染性种群执行更多的局部随机运动,则传染性种群将会减少。我们观察到,如果用于估计基本繁殖数量的参数在空间或时间上保持不变,则感染风险可能被低估了。二维空间模型的仿真实验表明,如果接触异质性增加,传染性种群将会增加,但是如果传染性种群执行更多的局部随机运动,则传染性种群将会减少。我们观察到,如果用于估计基本繁殖数量的参数在空间或时间上保持不变,则感染风险可能被低估了。

更新日期:2020-11-18
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