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SEIAQRDT model for the spread of novel coronavirus (COVID-19): A case study in India
Applied Intelligence ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-13 , DOI: 10.1007/s10489-020-01929-4
Preety Kumari 1, 2 , Harendra Pal Singh 3 , Swarn Singh 4
Affiliation  

COVID-19 is a global pandemic declared by WHO. This pandemic requires the execution of planned control strategies, incorporating quarantine, self-isolation, and tracing of asymptomatic cases. Mathematical modeling is one of the prominent techniques for predicting and controlling the spread of COVID-19. The predictions of earlier proposed epidemiological models (e.g. SIR, SEIR, SIRD, SEIRD, etc.) are not much accurate due to lack of consideration for transmission of the epidemic during the latent period. Moreover, it is important to classify infected individuals to control this pandemic. Therefore, a new mathematical model is proposed to incorporate infected individuals based on whether they have symptoms or not. This model forecasts the number of cases more accurately, which may help in better planning of control strategies. The model consists of eight compartments: susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), asymptomatic (A), quarantined (Q), recovered (R), deaths (D), and insusceptible (T), accumulatively named as SEIAQRDT. This model is employed to predict the pandemic results for India and its majorly affected states. The estimated number of cases using the SEIAQRDT model is compared with SIRD, SEIR, and LSTM models. The relative error square analysis is used to verify the accuracy of the proposed model. The simulation is done on real datasets and results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach. These results may help the government and individuals to make the planning in this pandemic situation.



中文翻译:

新型冠状病毒 (COVID-19) 传播的 SEIAQRDT 模型:印度的案例研究

COVID-19 是世卫组织宣布的全球大流行病。这场大流行需要执行有计划的控制策略,包括隔离、自我隔离和无症状病例追踪。数学建模是预测和控制 COVID-19 传播的主要技术之一。早期提出的流行病学模型(如​​ SIR、SEIR、SIRD、SEIRD 等)的预测由于缺乏对潜伏期流行病传播的考虑而不太准确。此外,对感染者进行分类以控制这种流行病也很重要。因此,提出了一种新的数学模型,以根据感染者是否有症状来纳入感染者。该模型更准确地预测病例数,有助于更好地规划控制策略。该模型由八个部分组成:易感(S)、暴露(E)、感染(I)、无症状(A)、隔离(Q)、康复(R)、死亡(D)和不敏感(T),累计命名作为 SEIAQRDT。该模型用于预测印度及其主要受影响州的大流行结果。将使用 SEIAQRDT 模型的估计病例数与 SIRD、SEIR 和 LSTM 模型进行比较。相对误差平方分析用于验证所提出模型的准确性。仿真是在真实数据集上完成的,结果表明了所提出方法的有效性。这些结果可能有助于政府和个人在这种大流行情况下做出规划。累计命名为 SEIAQRDT。该模型用于预测印度及其主要受影响州的大流行结果。将使用 SEIAQRDT 模型的估计病例数与 SIRD、SEIR 和 LSTM 模型进行比较。相对误差平方分析用于验证所提出模型的准确性。仿真是在真实数据集上完成的,结果表明了所提出方法的有效性。这些结果可能有助于政府和个人在这种大流行情况下做出规划。累计命名为 SEIAQRDT。该模型用于预测印度及其主要受影响州的大流行结果。将使用 SEIAQRDT 模型的估计病例数与 SIRD、SEIR 和 LSTM 模型进行比较。相对误差平方分析用于验证所提出模型的准确性。仿真是在真实数据集上完成的,结果表明了所提出方法的有效性。这些结果可能有助于政府和个人在这种大流行情况下做出规划。仿真是在真实数据集上完成的,结果表明了所提出方法的有效性。这些结果可能有助于政府和个人在这种大流行情况下做出规划。仿真是在真实数据集上完成的,结果表明了所提出方法的有效性。这些结果可能有助于政府和个人在这种大流行情况下做出规划。

更新日期:2020-11-13
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