Basin-scale projections of river runoff at different warming levels provide useful information for climate change adaptation. In this study, we investigated changes in the projected climate and simulated runoff under 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming of three inland rivers in the Hexi Corridor: the Shiyang River (SYR), the Heihe River (HHR), and the Shule River (SLR). The change in climate was projected based on five global climate models (GCMs) under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), and the change in runoff was simulated based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. Furthermore, the uncertainties in projected climate change and simulated runoff constrained by the GCMs and RCPs were quantified. The results indicate that, compared with the baseline period (1976–2005), there is a 1.42–1.54°C increase in annual air temperature and 4%–12% increase in annual mean precipitation in the three river basins under 1.5°C global warming, while there is a 2.09–2.36°C increase in annual air temperature and 5%–11% increase in annual mean precipitation under 2.0°C global warming. The simulated annual runoff of the SYR decreases by 4% under 1.5°C global warming, that of the HHR decreases by 3% and 4%, while that of the SLR increases considerably by 10% and 11% under 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming, respectively. The additional 0.5°C global warming results in an annual air temperature increase of 0.67–0.82°C, a change of −1% to 1% in annual mean precipitation, and a change of −1% to 5% in simulated runoff. The simulated annual runoff has greater uncertainty. The simulations indicate substantial and consistent warming in autumn and winter in the three basins, relatively drier summer and autumn in the SYR and HHR basins, and a relatively drier autumn in the SLR basin. The simulated monthly runoff shows more complex changes with large uncertainties constrained mainly by the GCMs.

不同变暖水平下河流径流的流域规模预测为适应气候变化提供了有用的信息。在这项研究中，我们调查了河西走廊的三条内陆河：石羊河（SYR），黑河（HHR）和疏勒河（Shule）在1.5℃和2.0℃全球变暖下的预估气候和模拟径流量的变化河（SLR）。根据五个全球气候模型（GCM）在三个代表性的集中途径（RCP）下预测了气候变化，并根据土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）水文模型模拟了径流变化。此外，对由GCM和RCP约束的预计气候变化和模拟径流的不确定性进行了量化。结果表明，与基线期（1976-2005年）相比，存在一个1.42-1。在全球变暖1.5°C的情况下，三个流域的年平均气温升高54°C，年平均降水量增长4％–12％，而年气温升高2.09–2.36°C，5％–11则是11在全球变暖2.0°C下，年平均降水量增加了％。在1.5°C的全球变暖条件下，SYR的模拟年径流减少4％，在1.5°C和2.0°的条件下，HHR的模拟年径流分别减少3％和4％，而SLR的模拟年径流则分别增加10％和11％。 C全球变暖分别。额外的0.5°C全球变暖导致空气温度每年增加0.67–0.82°C，年平均降水量变化-1％至1％，模拟径流变化-1％至5％。模拟的年径流量具有更大的不确定性。模拟表明，三个盆地的秋季和冬季出现了持续的大幅变暖，SYR和HHR盆地的夏季和秋季相对较干燥，而SLR盆地的秋季则相对较干燥。模拟的月径流量显示出更复杂的变化，且不确定性较大，这主要受GCM约束。