Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Impacts of 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global Warming on Runoff of Three Inland Rivers in the Hexi Corridor, Northwest China

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Journal of Meteorological Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Basin-scale projections of river runoff at different warming levels provide useful information for climate change adaptation. In this study, we investigated changes in the projected climate and simulated runoff under 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming of three inland rivers in the Hexi Corridor: the Shiyang River (SYR), the Heihe River (HHR), and the Shule River (SLR). The change in climate was projected based on five global climate models (GCMs) under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), and the change in runoff was simulated based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. Furthermore, the uncertainties in projected climate change and simulated runoff constrained by the GCMs and RCPs were quantified. The results indicate that, compared with the baseline period (1976–2005), there is a 1.42–1.54°C increase in annual air temperature and 4%–12% increase in annual mean precipitation in the three river basins under 1.5°C global warming, while there is a 2.09–2.36°C increase in annual air temperature and 5%–11% increase in annual mean precipitation under 2.0°C global warming. The simulated annual runoff of the SYR decreases by 4% under 1.5°C global warming, that of the HHR decreases by 3% and 4%, while that of the SLR increases considerably by 10% and 11% under 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming, respectively. The additional 0.5°C global warming results in an annual air temperature increase of 0.67–0.82°C, a change of −1% to 1% in annual mean precipitation, and a change of −1% to 5% in simulated runoff. The simulated annual runoff has greater uncertainty. The simulations indicate substantial and consistent warming in autumn and winter in the three basins, relatively drier summer and autumn in the SYR and HHR basins, and a relatively drier autumn in the SLR basin. The simulated monthly runoff shows more complex changes with large uncertainties constrained mainly by the GCMs.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Arnell, N. W., 2016: The global-scale impacts of climate change: The QUEST-GSI project. Climatic Change, 134, 343–352, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1600-x.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arnold, J. G., D. N. Moriasi, P. W. Gassman, et al., 2012: SWAT: Model use, calibration, and validation. Trans. ASABE, 55, 1491–1508, doi: https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.42256.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bao, C., and C.-L. Fang, 2007: Water resources constraint force on urbanization in water deficient regions: A case study of the Hexi Corridor, arid area of NW China. Ecol. Econ., 62, 508–517, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2006.07.013.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berg, A., and J. Sheffield, 2018: Soil moisture-evapotranspiration coupling in CMIP5 models: Relationship with simulated climate and projections. J. Climate, 31, 4865–1878, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0757.1.

    Google Scholar 

  • Betts, R. A., L. Alfieri, C. Bradshaw, et al., 2018: Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. A: Math., Phys. Eng. Sci., 376, 20160452, doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0452.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen, J., C. Gao, X. F. Zeng, et al., 2017: Assessing changes of river discharge under global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin: Approach by using multiple- GCMs and hydrological models. Quat. Int., 453, 63–73, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2017.01.017.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen, X. L., and T. J. Zhou, 2016: Uncertainty in crossing time of 2°C warming threshold over China. Sci. Bull., 61, 1451–1459, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-016-1166-z.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cheng, Y.-F., G.-X. Wang, H.-Y. Xi, et al., 2007: Variations of land evapotranspiration in the plain of the middle reaches of Heihe River in the recent 35 years. J. Glaciol. Geocryol., 29, 406–412, doi: https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-0240.2007.03.010. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Committee of the Third National Assessment Report on Climate Change (CTNARCC), 2015: Summary for policymakers. The Third National Assessment Report on Climate Change. Science Press, Beijing, 22–24. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Dile, Y. T., and R. Srinivasan, 2014: Evaluation of CFSR climate data for hydrologic prediction in data-scarce watersheds: An application in the Blue Nile River Basin. J. Amer. Water Resour. Assoc., 50, 1226–1241, doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jawr.12182.

    Google Scholar 

  • Döll, P., T. Trautmann, D. Gerten, et al., 2018: Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming. Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 044038, doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab792.

    Google Scholar 

  • Duan, Z., J. Z. Liu, Y. Tuo, et al., 2016: Evaluation of eight high spatial resolution gridded precipitation products in Adige Basin (Italy) at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Sci. Total Environ., 533, 1536–1553, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.08.213.

    Google Scholar 

  • Essou, G. R. C., F. Sabarly, P. Lucas-Picher, et al., 2016: Can precipitation and temperature from meteorological reanalyses be used for hydrological modeling? J. Hydrometeor., 57, 1929–1950, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0138.1.

    Google Scholar 

  • FAO, IIASA, ISRIC, et al., 2008: Harmonized World Soil Database (Version 1.0). FAO, Rome, Italy and IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 42 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gosling, S. N., J. Zaherpour, N. J. Mount, et al., 2017: A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1°C, 2°C and 3°C. Climatic Change, 441, 577–595, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1773-3.

    Google Scholar 

  • Grusson, Y., F. Anctil, S. Sauvage, et al., 2017: Testing the SWAT model with gridded weather data of different spatial resolutions. Water, 9, 54, doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/w9010054.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hao, Y., J. J. Ma, J. Chen, et al., 2018: Assessment of changes in water balance components under 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming in transitional climate basin by multi-RCPs and multi-GCMs approach. Water, 10, 1863, doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/w10121863.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hargreaves, G. H., and Z. A. Samani, 1985: Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature. Appl. Eng. Agric., 1, 96–99, doi: https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.26773.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hattermann, F. F., V. Krysanova, S. N. Gosling, et al., 2017: Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins. Climatic Change, 441, 561–576, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1829-4.

    Google Scholar 

  • He, Y., X. H. Jiang, N. L. Wang, et al., 2019: Changes in mountainous runoff in three inland river basins in the arid Hexi Corridor, China, and its influencing factors. Sustain. Cities Soc., 50, 101703, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101703.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hempel, S., K. Frieler, L. Warszawski, et al., 2013: A trend-preserving bias correction—the ISI-MIP approach. Earth Syst. Dyn., 4, 219–236, doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-219-2013.

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC, 2014: Summary for policymakers. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, C. B. Field, V. R. Barros, D. J. Dokken, et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 34 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC, 2018: Summary for Policymakers. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5°C above Pre-industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. M. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, et al., Eds., World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 32 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Javanmard, S., A. Yatagai, M. I. Nodzu, et al., 2010: Comparing high-resolution gridded precipitation data with satellite rainfall estimates of TRMM_3B42 over Iran. Adv. Geosci., 25, 119–125, doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-25-119-2010.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lan, Y.-C., J.-P. Liu, H.-W. Ding, et al., 2013: Changes of precipitation in mountainous areas of the three large inland river basins in the Hexi Corridor and their regional differences during 1960–2012. J. Glaciol. Geocryol., 335, 1474–1480. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Li, B. F., Y. N. Chen, Z. S. Chen, et al., 2012: Trends in runoff versus climate change in typical rivers in the arid region of northwest China. Quat. Int., 122, 87–95, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2012.06.005.

    Google Scholar 

  • Li, G., F. M. Zhang, Y. S. Jing, et al., 2017: Response of evapotranspiration to changes in land use and land cover and climate in China during 2001–2013. Sci. Total Environ., 596–597, 256–265, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.04.080.

    Google Scholar 

  • Li, X. L., L. Tong, J. Niu, et al., 2017: Spatio-temporal distribution of irrigation water productivity and its driving factors for cereal crops in Hexi Corridor, Northwest China. Agric. Water Manag., 179, 55–63, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2016.07.010.

    Google Scholar 

  • Li, Z. X., Q. Feng, Q. J. Wang, et al., 2016a: The influence from the shrinking cryosphere and strengthening evopotranspiration on hydrologic process in a cold basin, Qilian Mountains. Global Planet. Change, 144, 119–128, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.06.017.

    Google Scholar 

  • Li, Z. X., Q. Feng, Q. J. Wang, et al., 2016b: Contribution from frozen soil meltwater to runoff in an in-land river basin under water scarcity by isotopic tracing in northwestern China. Global Planet. Change, 136, 41–51, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.12.002.

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu, L. L., H. M. Xu, Y. Wang, et al., 2017: Impacts of 1.5 and 2°C global warming on water availability and extreme hydrological events in Yiluo and Beijiang River catchments in China. Climatic Change, 145, 145–158, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2072-3.

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu, L. L., T. Jiang, H. M. Xu, et al., 2018: Potential threats from variations of hydrological parameters to the Yellow River and Pearl River basins in China over the next 30 years. Water, 10, 883, doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/w10070883.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lu, Z. X., S. B. Zou, H. L. Xiao, et al., 2015: Comprehensive hydrologic calibration of SWAT and water balance analysis in mountainous watersheds in northwest China. Phys. Chem. Earth, Parts A/B/C, 79–12, 76–85, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2014.11.003.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ma, Z. M., S. Z. Kang, L. Zhang, et al., 2008: Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in arid region of northwest China. J. Hydrol., 352, 239–249, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.12.022.

    Google Scholar 

  • Matin, M. A., and C. P.-A. Bourque, 2013: Assessing spatiotemporal variation in actual evapotranspiration for semi-arid watersheds in northwest China: Evaluation of two complementary-based methods. J. Hydrol., 416, 455–465, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.014.

    Google Scholar 

  • McSweeney, C. F., and R. G. Jones, 2016: How representative is the spread of climate projections from the 5 CMIP5 GCMs used in ISI-MIP? Climate Serv., 1, 24–29, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2016.02.001.

    Google Scholar 

  • Neitsch, S. L., J. G. Arnold, J. R. Kiniry, et al., 2005: Soil and Water Assessment Tool Theoretical Documentation, Version 2005. Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory, Temple, TX, USA, 379–395.

    Google Scholar 

  • Neitsch, S. L., J. G. Arnold, J. R. Kiniry, et al., 2011: Soil and Water Assessment Tool Theoretical Documentation, Version 2009. Texas Water Resources Institute, College Station, TX, USA, 1–23.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nilawar, A. P., and M. L. Waikar, 2019: Impacts of climate change on streamflow and sediment concentration under RCP 4.5 and 8.5: A case study in Purna river basin, India. Sci. Total Environ., 650, 2685–2696, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.334.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pandey, V. P., S. Dhaubanjar, L. Bharati, et al., 2019: Hydrological response of Chamelia watershed in Mahakali Basin to climate change. Sci. Total Environ., 650, 365–383, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.053.

    Google Scholar 

  • Piao, S. L., P. Ciais, Y. Huang, et al., 2010: The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature, 467, 43–51, doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09364.

    Google Scholar 

  • Qin, J., Y. X. Liu, Y. P. Chang, et al., 2016: Regional runoff variation and its response to climate change and human activities in Northwest China. Environ. Earth Sci., 75, 1366, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-6187-z.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schewe, J., J. Heinke, D. Gerten, et al., 2014: Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3245–3250, doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222460110.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shi, Y. F., Y. P. Shen, E. S. Kang, et al., 2007: Recent and future climate change in Northwest China. Climatic Change, 80, 379–393, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9121-7.

    Google Scholar 

  • Su, B. D., J. L. Huang, X. F. Zeng, et al., 2017: Impacts of climate change on streamflow in the upper Yangtze River basin. Climatic Change, 141, 533–546, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1852-5.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sun, Q. H., C. Y. Miao, and Q. Y. Duan, 2015: Projected changes in temperature and precipitation in ten river basins over China in 21st century. Int. J. Climatol., 35, 1125–1141, doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4043.

    Google Scholar 

  • United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN-FCCC), 2015: Decision 1/CP.21. Adoption of the Paris Agreement. UNFCCC, New York, 32 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • United States Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service (USDA-NRCS), 2004: National Engineering Handbook. Part 630 Hydrology, Chapter 10: Estimation of Direct Runoff from Storm Rainfall. USDA-NRCS, Washington, DC, 1–22.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vetter, T., S. Huang, V. Aich, et al., 2015: Multi-model climate impact assessment and intercomparison for three large-scale river basins on three continents. Earth Syst. Dyn., 6, 17–43, doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-17-2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vetter, T., J. Reinhardt, M. Flörke, et al., 2017: Evaluation of sources of uncertainty in projected hydrological changes under climate change in 12 large-scale river basins. Climatic Change, 141, 419–433, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1794-y.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, H. J., Y. N. Chen, W. H. Li, et al., 2013: Runoff responses to climate change in arid region of northwestern China during 1960–2010. Chinese Geogr. Sci., 23, 286–300, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-013-0605-x.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, J. S., J. Y. Feng, L. F. Yang, et al., 2009: Runoff-denoted drought index and its relationship to the yields of spring wheat in the arid area of Hexi corridor, Northwest China. Agric. Water Manag., 96, 666–676, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2008.10.008.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, L., and W. Chen, 2014: A CMIP5 multimodel projection of future temperature, precipitation, and climatological drought in China. Int. J. Climatol., 34, 2059–2078, doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3822.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, R. T., Q. Y. Cheng, L. Liu, et al., 2019: Multi-model projections of climate change in different RCP scenarios in an arid inland region, Northwest China. Water, 11, 347, doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/w11020347.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, X. Q., R. S. Chen, C. T. Han, et al., 2019: Changes in river discharge in typical mountain permafrost catchments, northwestern China. Quat. Int., 519, 32–41, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2018.11.010.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, Y.-J., and D.-H. Qin, 2017: Influence of climate change and human activity on water resources in arid region of Northwest China: An overview. Adv. Climate Change Res., 8, 268–278, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.08.004.

    Google Scholar 

  • Warszawski, L., K. Frieler, V. Huber, et al., 2014: The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP): Project framework. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3228–3232, doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1312330110.

    Google Scholar 

  • Weedon, G. P., S. Gomes, P. Viterbo, et al., 2010: The WATCH Forcing Data 1958–2001: A Meteorological Forcing Dataset for Land Surface- and Hydrological-Models. Technical Report No. 22, EU WATCH (Water and Global Change) project, 41 pp.

  • Weedon, G. P., S. Gomes, P. Viterbo, et al., 2011: Creation of the WATCH Forcing Data and its use to assess global and regional reference crop evaporation over land during the twentieth century. J. Hydrometeor., 92, 823–848, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1369.1.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zeng, Z. Z., S. L. Piao, L. Z. X. Li, et al., 2018: Impact of Earth greening on the terrestrial water cycle. J. Climate, 31, 2633–2650, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0236.1.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhai, R., F. L. Tao, and Z. H. Xu, 2018: Spatial-temporal changes in runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention under 1.5 and 2°C warming scenarios across China. Earth Syst. Dyn., 9, 717–738, doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-717-2018.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zou, M. Z., S. Z. Kang, J. Niu, et al., 2020: Untangling the effects of future climate change and human activity on evapotranspiration in the Heihe agricultural region, Northwest China. J. Hydrol., 585, 124323, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124323.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

Thanks go to Dr. Qiufeng Liu, who helped draw the figure of the study area. Data from the five GCMs were obtained from the ISI-MIP. The data are available upon request to isimip-data@pik-potsdam.de.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/International Joint Research Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Yujie Wang

  2. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Yujie Wang

  3. Chongqing Meteorological Service, Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing, 401147, China

    Yong Wang

  4. China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Beijing, 100081, China

    Hongmei Xu

Authors
  1. Yujie Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Yong Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Hongmei Xu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hongmei Xu.

Additional information

Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFA0606302 and SQ2018YFE010367) and China Meteorological Administration Climate Change Project (CCSF201924).

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Wang, Y., Wang, Y. & Xu, H. Impacts of 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global Warming on Runoff of Three Inland Rivers in the Hexi Corridor, Northwest China. J Meteorol Res 34, 1082–1095 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-020-9152-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-020-9152-4

Key words

Search

Navigation