Global warming changes the characteristics of regional climate and crop growth environments and affects human production and life in the long term. In this study, historical snowfall observation data from 199 conventional meteorological stations in the Huaihe River Basin were analyzed with the climate trend method, the nonparametric Mann-Kendall (M-K) test and the sliding t test to determine the variability and abrupt changes in climate trends in the Huaihe River Basin during 1951–2018. Then, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 datasets were used to analyze the evolutionary trend of snowfall under four climate change scenarios in 2015–2065. The results show the following: 1) Due to climate warming, both the historical data and the simulated data under different climate change scenarios show declining snowfall in the Huaihe River Basin. 2) Based on the analysis of historical data from meteorological stations, the snow events had a clear latitudinal distribution—the higher the latitude, the lower the occurrence of snow events. In contrast, as shown by the analysis results obtained under different climate change scenarios, the snow mass flux had a clear longitudinal distribution—the higher the longitude, the higher the snow mass flux. 3) In Scenario SSP370, 2050 is important because the snowfall changes from decreasing to increasing, and in 2065, the snowfall in most areas of the basin is greater than that in 2050. Furthermore, the snowfall along the southeastern coast of the basin has the greatest variability.

全球变暖会长期改变区域气候和作物生长环境的特征，并影响人类的生产和生活。本研究利用气候趋势法，非参数Mann-Kendall（MK）检验和滑动法对淮河流域199个常规气象站的降雪观测数据进行了分析。Ť检验以确定1951-2018年淮河流域气候趋势的变异性和突变。然后，使用耦合模型比较项目第6阶段数据集分析了2015-2065年四种气候变化情景下降雪的演变趋势。结果表明：1）由于气候变暖，不同气候变化情景下的历史数据和模拟数据均显示淮河流域降雪量在下降。2）根据对气象台站历史数据的分析，降雪事件具有明显的纬度分布-纬度越高，降雪事件的发生率就越低。相反，如在不同气候变化情景下获得的分析结果所示，积雪通量具有清晰的纵向分布-经度越高，积雪通量越高。3）在方案SSP370中，2050年很重要，因为降雪量从减少到增加，并且在2065年，该盆地大部分地区的降雪量都大于2050年。此外，沿盆地东南海岸的降雪量最大的可变性。