This study investigates the effect of land-use and land cover (LULC) change on above-ground tree carbon (AGTC) in a subbasin of the Tampa Bay Watershed, Florida. LULC change was integrated with AGTC to project future quantities under three landscape scenarios: baseline, increased and aggressive rates of development. A 12% increase in total landscape AGTC occurred from 2006 to 2011 as agriculture and rangeland were converted to residential, infrastructure and built classes. Scenario projections for 2016 show an additional increase of 11% AGTC under baseline change, 15% under increased development and 18% under aggressive development. These results suggest that residential expansion may cause an increase in AGTC storage as agriculture and rangeland areas are replaced. However, as agriculture and rangeland disappear, LULC change patterns could shift, with residential expansion replacing upland and wetland forested areas causing a long-term decrease in AGTC. These results show that biomass of the tree component of AGTC can be significant, in and of itself, for urban classes and provide insights into its role in AGTC dynamics for these systems. This information can also help decision-makers identify areas as potential carbon sources or sinks.

这项研究调查了佛罗里达州坦帕湾流域一个子盆地的土地利用和土地覆被（LULC）变化对地上树木碳（AGTC）的影响。LULC变更与AGTC集成在一起，可在三种情况下预测未来的数量：基准线，增长速度和激进的发展速度。从2006年到2011年，AGTC的总景观量增长了12％，这是因为将农业和牧场转变为住宅，基础设施和建筑类。2016年的方案预测显示，基线变化下AGTC会再增加11％，发展水平下将增加15％，积极发展下将增加18％。这些结果表明，随着农业和牧场地被替换，居民的扩张可能会增加AGTC的存储量。但是，随着农业和牧场的消失，LULC的变化方式可能会发生变化，随着住宅的扩张，取代了高地和湿地的林区，导致AGTC的长期下降。这些结果表明，AGTC树木成分的生物量本身对于城市阶级而言可能是重要的，并提供了其对于这些系统在AGTC动态中的作用的见解。这些信息还可以帮助决策者确定潜在的碳源或汇区。