Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Estimates of above-ground tree carbon after projected land-use and land cover change in a subtropical urban watershed

  • Published:
Urban Ecosystems Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of land-use and land cover (LULC) change on above-ground tree carbon (AGTC) in a subbasin of the Tampa Bay Watershed, Florida. LULC change was integrated with AGTC to project future quantities under three landscape scenarios: baseline, increased and aggressive rates of development. A 12% increase in total landscape AGTC occurred from 2006 to 2011 as agriculture and rangeland were converted to residential, infrastructure and built classes. Scenario projections for 2016 show an additional increase of 11% AGTC under baseline change, 15% under increased development and 18% under aggressive development. These results suggest that residential expansion may cause an increase in AGTC storage as agriculture and rangeland areas are replaced. However, as agriculture and rangeland disappear, LULC change patterns could shift, with residential expansion replacing upland and wetland forested areas causing a long-term decrease in AGTC. These results show that biomass of the tree component of AGTC can be significant, in and of itself, for urban classes and provide insights into its role in AGTC dynamics for these systems. This information can also help decision-makers identify areas as potential carbon sources or sinks.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Andreu MG, Friedman MH, Northrop RJ (2009) Environmental Services Provided by Tampa’s Urban Forest Univ Fla IFAS Ext EDIS 2009:

  • Andreu MG, Friedman MH, Landry SM, Northrop RJ (2019) City of Tampa urban ecological analysis. Univ Fla IFAS Ext EDIS

  • Brown DG, Johnson KM, Loveland TR, Theobald DM (2005) Rural land-use trends in the conterminous United States, 1950-2000. Ecol Appl 15:1851–1863

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brundtland GH (1988) Our common future: a climate for change. In: Proceedings of the world conference on the changing atmosphere: implications for global security, pp 27–30

  • Coomes DA, Holdaway RJ, Kobe RK, Lines ER, Allen RB (2012) A general integrative framework for modelling woody biomass production and carbon sequestration rates in forests. J Ecol 100:42–64

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Dale MJ (2013) Evaluation of methods for quantifying carbon storage of urban trees in New Zealand. Unpubl Manuscr

  • Davies ZG, Dallimer M, Edmondson JL, Leake JR, Gaston KJ (2013) Identifying potential sources of variability between vegetation carbon storage estimates for urban areas. Environ Pollut 183:133–142

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Ellis EC, Klein Goldewijk K, Siebert S et al (2010) Anthropogenic transformation of the biomes, 1700 to 2000. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 19:589–606

    Google Scholar 

  • Empke EK, Becker E, Lab J et al (2012) Orlando, Florida’s urban and community forests and their ecosystem services. Univ Fla IFAS Ext EDIS

  • Enloe HA, Lockaby BG, Zipperer WC, Somers GL (2015) Urbanization effects on leaf litter decomposition, foliar nutrient dynamics and aboveground net primary productivity in the subtropics. Urban Ecosyst 18:1285–1303

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Escobedo F, Varela S, Zhao M, Wagner JE, Zipperer W (2010) Analyzing the efficacy of subtropical urban forests in offsetting carbon emissions from cities. Environ Sci Pol 13:362–372

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Escobedo F, Klein J, Pace M et al (2011) Miami-Dade county’s urban forests and their ecosystem services. Univ Fla IFAS Ext EDIS

  • Escobedo F, Seitz J, Zipperer WC, Iannone B (2018) Gainesville, Florida’s urban tree cover. Univ Fla IFAS Ext EDIS

  • Heath LS, Smith JE, Skog KE et al (2011) Managed Forest carbon estimates for the US greenhouse gas inventory, 1990—2008. J For 109:167–173

    Google Scholar 

  • Houghton RA (1999) The annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use 1850–1990. Tellus B 51:298–313

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Houghton RA (2003) Revised estimates of the annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use and land management 1850–2000. Tellus B 55:378–390

    Google Scholar 

  • Houghton RA (2010) How well do we know the flux of CO2 from land-use change? Tellus Ser B Chem Phys Meteorol 62:337–351

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hutyra LR, Yoon B, Hepinstall-Cymerman J, Alberti M (2011) Carbon consequences of land cover change and expansion of urban lands: a case study in the Seattle metropolitan region. Landsc Urban Plan 103:83–93

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lagrosa JJ, Zipperer WC, Andreu MG (2018) Projecting land-use and land cover change in a subtropical urban watershed. Urban Sci 2:11

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Larondelle N, Haase D (2013) Urban ecosystem services assessment along a rural–urban gradient: a cross-analysis of European cities. Ecol Indic 29:179–190

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Linder M, Zacharias LS (1999) Of cabbages and kings county: agriculture and the formation of modern Brooklyn. University of Iowa Press

  • McPherson EG, Xiao Q, Aguaron E (2013) A new approach to quantify and map carbon stored, sequestered and emissions avoided by urban forests. Landsc Urban Plan 120:70–84

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nagy RC, Lockaby BG, Zipperer WC, Marzen LJ (2014) A comparison of carbon and nitrogen stocks among land uses/covers in coastal Florida. Urban Ecosyst 17:255–276

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nowak DJ, Crane DE, Stevens JC et al (2008) A ground-based method of assessing urban forest structure and ecosystem services. Arboric Urban For 34:347–358

    Google Scholar 

  • Nowak DJ, Greenfield EJ, Hoehn RE, Lapoint E (2013) Carbon storage and sequestration by trees in urban and community areas of the United States. Environ Pollut 178:229–236

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Southwest Florida Water Management District (2015) Current SWFWMD Managed land. Southwest Florida Water Management District, Brooksville, FL

  • Strohbach MW, Haase D (2012) Above-ground carbon storage by urban trees in Leipzig, Germany: analysis of patterns in a European city. Landsc Urban Plan 104:95–104

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Theobald DM (2010) Estimating natural landscape changes from 1992 to 2030 in the conterminous US. Landsc Ecol 25:999–1011

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2014) 2014 revision of the World Urbanization Prospects. https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/publications/2014-revision-world-urbanization-prospects.html

  • United States Census Bureau (2000) The 2000 United States Census. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/decade.2000.html

  • United States Census Bureau (2010) The 2010 United States Census. http://www.census.gov/2010census/

  • Verburg PH (2010) The CLUE modelling framework: the conversion of land use and its effects. University Amsterdam. Inst Environ Stud, Amsterdam

    Google Scholar 

  • Verburg PH, Overmars KP (2009) Combining top-down and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling: exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model. Landsc Ecol 24:1167–1181

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • West PC, Gibbs HK, Monfreda C, Wagner J, Barford CC, Carpenter SR, Foley JA (2010) Trading carbon for food: global comparison of carbon stocks vs. crop yields on agricultural land. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:19645–19648

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wyman M, Escobedo F, Stein T, Orfanedes M, Northrop R (2012) Community leader perceptions and attitudes toward coastal urban forests and hurricanes in Florida. South J Appl For 36:152–158

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zipperer WC, Foresman TW, Walker SP, Daniel CT (2012) Ecological consequences of fragmentation and deforestation in an urban landscape: a case study. Urban Ecosyst 15:533–544

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We are thankful for funding support from the USDA Forest Service, City of Tampa, and School of Forest Resources and Conservation at the University of Florida. We would like to thank Robert J. Northrop, Carolyn Cheatham Rhodes and Melissa Friedman for data collection efforts. Finally, we’d like to thank Timothy A. Martin, Wendell P. Cropper, Michael W. Binford for feedback on early drafts of the manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to John J. Lagrosa IV.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Lagrosa, J.J., Zipperer, W.C. & Andreu, M.G. Estimates of above-ground tree carbon after projected land-use and land cover change in a subtropical urban watershed. Urban Ecosyst 23, 1263–1275 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11252-020-01006-1

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11252-020-01006-1

Keywords

Navigation